Finger Lakes Thunderstorm Outlook
Warm and humid summer-time air will once again provide just enough fuel for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms Monday before a front triggers more widespread action on Tuesday.
Temperatures are already pushing through the upper 70s and low 80s across the Finger Lakes as of 10 AM. Skies have been mostly clear thus far, but the first few puffy cumulus clouds are starting to show up.
These clouds will continue to bubble up through the morning and afternoon as temperatures reach the mid and upper 80s. Dewpoints will be muggy in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
There is not much to trigger thunderstorm development today, but a few isolated and small cells should pop up after 3 PM. These storms will have lightning, some heavy rain, and perhaps a strong wind gust or some small hail. Most areas will not see any rain today though.
Any activity will quickly dissipate this evening as the daytime heating is lost. Another warm, generally clear night is expected tonight with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.
On Tuesday, a cold front will push into the warm, humid air, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
The wind fields in the atmosphere will not be particularly strong tomorrow which reduces the threat for severe thunderstorms. The primary threats from the storms will be frequent lightning and locally heavy rain. Still, a few strong to damaging wind gusts or some hail will be possible with any clusters that become semi-organized for a short time.
Thunderstorms will be most likely between 1-9 PM tomorrow. Some areas could see multiple storms over the course of the afternoon. Some areas will not see direct impacts from the storms, and a few places may even miss out on all the rain as well.
Before the storms move in, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s.
A few additional showers and storms may linger into Wednesday as the front slowly pushes southeast. These will be most likely in the morning with increasing chances the further southeast you go.
Quiet and Comfortable Again
Behind this front, another stretch of quiet and comfortable weather is expected.
A stray shower may be possible early Thursday, but the afternoon should be sunny. A gentle north wind will keep temperatures and humidity levels down. Look for afternoon highs in the upper 70s with dry dewpoints only in the low 50s.
Friday will be mostly sunny. Even fair weather clouds may be hard to come by. Temperatures will settle in the low 80s with dewpoints remaining in the low 50s.
Dewpoints will return to the 60s this weekend, which will make it feel a touch humid to some, but not oppressively so. The increase in humidity could lead to a pop-up shower or two. High temperatures will be in the low and mid 80s.
The next chance for widespread rain may not come again until next Tuesday-Wednesday as the weather pattern of the past week repeats itself.
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