Thursday Storm Details
An approaching cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes this afternoon, some of which will become strong to severe.
Already at 9 AM this morning, thunderstorms are ongoing across southern Ontario and are moving over Lake Erie. Meanwhile, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are in place across the Finger Lakes.
Over the next several hours, conditions for thunderstorms will increase across the region. Meanwhile, the initial line of storms will continue to move eastward. This line may weaken for a time but new storm development along and behind this line is expected early in the afternoon.
With new storms possible behind this primary line, portions of the Finger Lakes could see multiple storms today. Most of the storms should be between 2-6 PM.
Lightning, a few damaging wind gusts, and large hail will be the primary threats from the storms today. Conditions do not look very favorable for tornadoes, so I do not expect that to be a major concern today. Flash flooding also does not appear to be much of a concern.
The threat level is set at Level 2- LOW. Most areas will not see severe thunderstorms, but several areas will. Downed trees will be possible as well as hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. A severe thunderstorm watch for the area is a reasonable expectation along with several severe thunderstorm warnings. I may post a live blog this afternoon to post timely updates.
After the Storms
A few showers will continue to be possible into the evening hours once the thunderstorms clear the region. Watch for areas of fog tonight, as is common after thunderstorms during the mid and late summer.
Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds. A cool northwest wind will blow, gusting as high as 30 mph. A few pop-up afternoon showers are likely as the daytime heating warms the surface beneath cold air aloft.
A few more stray showers will also be possible into Saturday as a small feature drops south across the area. Otherwise, it will be another partly cloudy, breezy day.
Temperatures Friday will reach the mid 70s with low 70s more likely on Saturday.
Sunday will be less windy and warmer with highs in the mid and upper 70s.
The next weather system will move in sometime early next week, but the models have been very inconsistent with the timing and intensity of this system.
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