Quiet weather continues locally while Tropics remain active

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday september 18 2019 sunny dry temperatures humberto imelda jerry
Another sunny, dry day is ahead for the Finger Lakes with more of the same in days to come. The tropics are active, though. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Fine in the Finger Lakes

The sunny, dry weather pattern that has set up over the Finger Lakes will continue for several more days and into the weekend.

High pressure at the surface is located over New England while the jet stream is shooting far north into Canada before coming back south over northern New England.

This pattern will hold through the weekend, keeping our weather quiet, sunny, and dry.

Virtually no changes at all have been made to the forecast I published yesterday or Monday.

Like the last few days, today is starting out sunny with a few areas of valley fog across the Southern Tier. Sunshine will be abundant with only a few small fair weather clouds over the course of the day.

Temperatures will go from chilly this morning with widespread 40s to comfortable in the afternoon with highs around or just above 70 degrees.

Tomorrow will have more of the same with nearly identical morning temperatures and afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer.

There may be a few additional clouds on Friday that may filter some of the sunshine. Temperatures will be warmer though with morning lows in the upper 40s and low 50s and afternoon highs in the mid and upper 70s.

The weekend will continue the warming trend, with highs near or just above 80 degrees on Saturday and into the low and mid 80s Sunday. Look for sun-filled skies Saturday and just a few more thin clouds Sunday.

Rain is expected on Monday as our pattern finally breaks.

Tropical Atlantic Active

atlantic tropical satellite wednesday september 18 2019 hurricane humberto tropical storm imelda tropical storm jerry
Satellite imagery from early Wednesday morning shows Hurricane Humberto, the remains of Tropical Storm Imelda, and newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry. Click to enlarge.

This time of the year is when the Tropical Atlantic typically has its peak activity. Currently, there are three systems to discuss.

First is Hurricane Humberto. Humberto first developed last Thursday near the Bahamas and has gradually tracked north, then northeast, staying far from the southeast coast of the United States. Slow and steady strengthening has occurred, and Humberto is now a Category 3 hurricane.

Later today, Humberto should clip Bermuda with hurricane conditions, though the strongest winds near the eye will remain far offshore. Large swells and rip currents from Humberto are impacting the coast of the United States.

Next is Imelda. This system developed yesterday just off the coast of Texas, briefly reached tropical storm status, and moved inland. While Imelda no longer has tropical characteristics and never developed significant winds, very heavy rain will produce flooding across eastern Texas. A large area is expected to see as much as 6-10 inches of rain from Imelda.

Last, Jerry is also a newly developed tropical storm far out over the central Atlantic Ocean. Jerry is expected to be a hurricane by the weekend as it tracks west-northwest. It is too early to say where Jerry will end up, but there is a chance this storm will end up a “fish” and not impact land.

Nonetheless, Jerry will be a system to watch, as a more western track would pose a threat to land, and possibly the Bahamas and/or United States.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.