Stalled Front
A frontal boundary is draped across the Finger Lakes this morning and will only slowly drift away.
Radar is showing widespread light rain associated with the front, but most of that precipitation is not reaching the ground. Reports of rain are scarce this morning and will continue to be so.
Still, some drizzle or a brief shower will be possible through the morning. By the afternoon, the chances for rain will increase. Some areas will still not see any rain today, and those that do will only see light amounts.
With the clouds and showers, temperatures today will be cooler with highs in the low and mid 50s. Winds will be light and variable with the front overhead.
Showers and clouds will depart this evening with a brief period of partly to mostly clear skies overnight. With such a small window for clear skies, temperatures will probably not drop enough for frost tonight. Most areas should stick near or just above 40 degrees.
New clouds will stream north on Saturday as a thin layer of overcast. A limited amount of sunshine will filter through the clouds. The clouds will become thicker later in the day, but rain is not expected until after sunset.
Temperatures Saturday will again top out in the low and mid 50s with light winds.
Another Round of Wind and Rain
The next significant fall weather system will move in Saturday night and linger throughout Sunday. Periods of moderate to heavy rain and strong winds will again be likely, similar to the last few larger storm systems.
Rain will start to move in Saturday night and will become heavy by the early morning hours. Several hours of steady rain are likely before tapering to showers for the late morning and early afternoon. Late Sunday afternoon should be more dry than not with only a couple scattered showers, especially east of Lake Erie.
Most areas will see between a half inch and one inch, but locally higher amounts are possible.
Wind will arguably have a bigger impact than the rain. Southeast winds will steadily increase Saturday evening with gusts over 30 mph showing up around midnight. The wind will continue to increase through the night and into Sunday morning, peaking shortly after dawn.
Widespread gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible. Higher elevations may gust as high as 55 mph. Sporadic power outages will be possible. Leaf litter will also clog drains and could lead to some minor urban ponding of water.
Winds will continue to gust between 30-45 mph until the mid to late afternoon Sunday. Then, a cold front will move through, swinging the wind to the southwest.
The weather will settle down for the first part of next week before another potent storm system rolls in Halloween Night and for the first of November.
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