Weather System #1
There are two major storm systems in the United States this morning.
The first is centered near Green Bay, Wisconsin and will bring rain and wind to the Finger Lakes today. The second just rolled onshore in northern California. Both systems are large and rather strong.
As the first system continues to track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes, our winds will pick up today and continue into Thanksgiving.
Winds today will start from the southeast with gusts of 25-35 mph through the morning and early afternoon. A few scattered rain showers will be possible during this time.
During the mid afternoon, a band of rain will move through. A briefly heavier downpour or even a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Winds will flare up during this time with gusts over 45-50 mph, especially over higher elevations. These winds will be from the south.
A second band of precipitation will move in about 3-5 hours after the first. This band should have less rain, but again a heavier burst or rumble of thunder will be possible. This rain will occur along the cold front with winds turning to the west immediately following the frontal passage.
Winds will increase again behind the front with gusts of 35-45 mph throughout the early evening and overnight. These winds will linger into Thursday as well.
Cold air will return on these winds, which should turn to the northwest by Thursday morning. Scattered rain showers will mix with and turn to snow overnight with temperatures settling into the mid and upper 30s. Temperatures will lose a few more degrees during the day Thursday.
Once the winds turn to the northwest, precipitation will become more widespread thanks to Lake Ontario. The precipitation will be light to moderate in intensity with any leftover rain turning to snow over the course of Thursday morning.
I expect flurries to diminish, but not disappear Thursday afternoon and even into the evening for a few areas. Most areas will see no more than a dusting, but higher elevations in Central New York, as well as the Bristol Hills south of Canandaigua could see an inch or two.
Weather System #2
Friday and Saturday look quiet albeit cool across the Finger Lakes.
Black Friday morning lows will be in the low and mid 20s with afternoon highs reaching about 30 degrees. After some early clouds, sunshine should gradually increase.
Saturday will start with filtered sunshine though clouds will steadily increase through the day. Morning lows will be near or just above 20 degrees with highs again around 30 degrees.
Saturday’s clouds will be ahead of the second weather system. Now that this system has moved inland from the Pacific Ocean, the amount of weather data that can be collected will greatly increase. All this data can now be fed into the models, which should increase the confidence on how this system will impact us.
So far, the models have been consistently showing a period of freezing rain Sunday morning across our area, followed by a mix of rain and snow. Some models have followed this with significant snow on Monday. I mention this because I am sure other outlets will be soon, if they aren’t already, not because I necessarily think it will happen. It is too early to be sure of anything.
Given the high volume of holiday traffic this weekend, it will be important not to get caught up in premature forecasts and holiday weather hype.
Stay tuned over the next day or two for updates. I plan to have a Snow Report this evening focusing on Thursday’s snow, but will mention Sunday’s system in the “Future Snow” section. I will probably not have a post Thursday morning, but will on Friday.
In the meantime, if you can’t wait for Friday, please feel free to send me a message with your specific questions at any time and I will get back to you within a couple hours over the Holiday.
Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
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