Only isolated, brief showers Thursday

Low Rain Chances

A broad area of low pressure is situated to our north while yesterday’s cold front has settled to our east.

The result of this pattern is a day that will not be completely devoid of rain but should be less active than yesterday.

Pockets of early fog and cloudiness are quickly burning off, leaving sunny skies for most this morning. As usual, fair-weather clouds will bubble up during the latter half of the morning and into the afternoon.

There will be just enough moisture and energy in the atmosphere to touch off a few isolated, brief showers this afternoon. In particular, these seem most likely across the southern half of the region.

These showers will bring some brief downpours that last 15 minutes or less in most cases. Many areas will miss out on any rain.

Winds today will be from the northwest for the northern half of the region and from the west for the southern half. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph.

High temperatures will be close to the seasonal averages, ranging from the mid 70s in some higher elevations to the low 80s from Rochester to Syracuse to Elmira.

Skies will be clear tonight, though some thin clouds will mix in at times, especially in the south. Overnight temperatures will also be close to average in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Friday will have some breaks of sunshine, but thin clouds from the south will filter the intensity of the sun. Fair-weather clouds are also likely, but no precipitation should fall.

Temperatures will be near or above 80 degrees for most, with just a few higher elevations in the upper 70s.

Mid and Long Range Uncertainties

The forecast becomes more complex once we get into and beyond the weekend.

First is a low pressure system that will track northeast toward the region late Saturday into Sunday.

The models are split on the track of this system and its impacts on our region., especially Sunday.

The higher impact track takes the low over or near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This would bring periods of rain and possibly thunderstorms on Sunday.

A further west track would keep the weekend mostly dry but would spike temperatures close to 90 on Sunday with high amounts of humidity.

Either way, Saturday should be a dry day with varying amounts of sunshine and highs in the low to perhaps mid 80s.

The next uncertainty comes toward the middle of next week as a cold front approaches. While the front itself is not a huge uncertainty, the development of Tropical Storm Isaias near Puerto Rico could complicate the picture.

Isaias itself faces a slew of uncertainty with its track and strength, but confidence should increase in the next 24-48 hours once it passes by the mountain island of Hispaniola between Cuba and Puerto Rico.

A track near the Atlantic coast will be possible early next week, and some moisture from Isaias could end up interacting with the front. These frontal-tropical interactions are among the lowest confidence weather phenomenon to predict and is impossible to do this far in advance.

Stay tuned and be wary of premature predictions and weather hype.