Some Severe Risk Tomorrow
An area of low pressure will track to our west, then north on Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and storms to the region.
Out ahead of this system, Saturday will be quiet and dry. Thin clouds out ahead of the low pressure will filter the sunshine, especially through the afternoon.
Nonetheless, highs will still reach the mid 80s over a large portion of the Finger Lakes.
A warm front will lift through the region from the southwest during the pre-dawn and near-dawn hours Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely during this time but should clear out during the mid morning hours.
In the wake of the front, gusty south and southwest winds will develop with some breaks of sunshine. Even without much sunshine, temperatures should push back into the mid 80s. If ample sunshine does work out, some upper 80s may be possible.
Despite the warm and humid air at the surface, it will be unfavorably warm aloft for rapid, strong thunderstorm development. This will be a limiting factor to the severe threat but will not completely remove the chance.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will make an attempt to develop, starting over the western half of the region, but not really getting their act together until they make their way into the eastern half. The greatest severe threat will be from about Cayuga Lake eastward. The maximum severe threat, however, may stay east of the region altogether.
Overall, this looks to be a Level 1- Isolated event for the western half of the Finger Lakes and a Level 2- Scattered event for the east. We have seen several similar events this summer.
Lightning and damaging winds will be the primary concern. Hail seems to be only an isolated threat. Given the wind profiles, an isolated tornado would not be surprising, but again, this seems more likely east of the Finger Lakes region.
The primary window for severe weather seems to be between 2-6 PM. Multiple storms may impact a single location while other areas see no additional rain.
A few showers and storms will be possible on Monday with a better chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Direct impacts from Hurricane Isaias still seem unlikely, but how the moisture from the hurricane interacts with Tuesday’s fronts remains a major source of uncertainty.
Be on the lookout for a late morning update on Sunday on the severe potential.
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