Just a few showers this week

finger lakes weather forecast monday august 17 2020 sun clouds isolated showers
Scattered showers will be possible the next couple days, but many areas will miss out on most, if not all of the rain. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Generally Dry Conditions Continue

A slow-moving, weak weather system will bring a few scattered showers to the area over the next few days for the only rain chances this week.

Several waves of energy will rotate around the parent low, which is situated well to our north. Already some scattered showers fell yesterday, last night, and early this morning.

Most of the daytime hours today will be tranquil between these waves, but a few scattered showers will pop up late this afternoon and evening. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible.

After the rain dissipates tonight, Tuesday will start dry before a few more isolated afternoon showers develop. These will continue into Tuesday night and possibly the first part of Wednesday.

During all these chances for rain, individual rain showers will be small and short-lived. Even areas that see rain will probably not see much, and many areas will be missed altogether.

Outside of the showers, the next few days will have a mix of cloudy periods and sunnier ones. Temperatures will cool, with highs today in the upper 70s, highs Tuesday in the mid 70s, and highs only near or just above 70 on Wednesday.

Comfortable overnight temperatures will drop into the 50s and low 60s. Wednesday night will be coolest, with almost all areas at or below 55 degrees with some upper 40s in the valleys of the Southern Tier.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 17 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

High Pressure Builds In

The second half of the week will be dominated by high pressure that will likely linger through the weekend. This will send our already meager rain chances to zero for the foreseeable future.

Skies will be sunny with afternoon fair weather clouds and the occasional batch of thin cirrus clouds. Overnight skies should be mostly clear.

This pattern should take hold later Wednesday and continue through Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday.

During this time period, temperatures will start to warm back up as well.

Thursday will still be in the 70s, but warmer than Wednesday. By Friday, 80s should start to return, with mid 80s possible by the weekend.

After Sunday, the long-range models become a mess of uncertainty.  The European model’s ensembles are no help at all, with some showing rain, others keeping us dry, and daily high temperatures anywhere from upper 50s to upper 90s!

Obviously, this is no help at all in planning for next week, but it will be interesting to see what trends emerge from this mess. Stay tuned!

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.