No two days this week will be alike as a busy pattern sets up across our region.
Today will start the week off on a hot note as we pick up where yesterday left off.
Temperatures are rising quickly under clear skies this morning, aided by a warm, westerly flow of air through the region. Highs should mostly be in the upper 80s, though some places will likely break 90 degrees.
By this afternoon, a small disturbance will approach from the Upper Great Lakes and will interact with the hot and humid air in place. A few isolated storm cells and a couple small clusters of storms will pop up.
The storms will be hit or miss, and many areas will not see much if any rain today. Severe weather is not expected, either, with a lack of support and winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
Any showers and storms will taper off quickly this evening, but after midnight, new activity may dive south into the region ahead of a cold front. The chance for scattered showers and storms will continue into Tuesday morning. Some hail or gusty winds cannot be ruled out.
By the early afternoon Tuesday, the front will move through and the thunderstorm threat will shift south into Pennsylvania. The afternoon should have a mix of sun and clouds with blustery northwest winds gusting to near 30 mph.
Temperatures will peak in the low 80s during the midday hours and will retreat to the upper 70s for the mid and late afternoon.
A shot of cooler air will build in behind the front. Overnight lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s and low 60s, while highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach 75 degrees.
Northwest winds will still be gusty on Wednesday, though not quite as strong as on Tuesday. Skies will be partly cloudy with no rain expected.
Late Week Weather
Thursday is one of the least certain days of the week, thanks to a frontal boundary that will set up near or over our region.
This will bring a chance for rain and thunderstorms throughout the day, especially to the northeastern half of the region, very roughly along and northeast of a Geneseo-Penn Yan-Binghamton line. Where it is rainy, highs in the 70s or even are possible.
Just south and west of the rainy area though, heat and humidity will build back in and temperatures could approach 90 degrees. To illustrate this, the current European model forecast for highs on Thursday has Syracuse at 68 degrees and Elmira at 89 degrees. Obviously, any slight shift in the front’s position, which is nearly a certainty this many days in advance, will have large impacts on the weather.
The front will sag south on Friday, but then come back north, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Moisture from soon-to-be Hurricane Laura may also enter the picture, though the heaviest rain from Laura should stay well to our south.
Scattered showers and storms may linger into Saturday before the whole messy complex of fronts, lows, and tropical remnants packs up and heads out over the Atlantic. In its wake, a shot of fall-like air will move in for Sunday with highs very likely to only be in the 60s.
I am planning to have a special blog post this afternoon taking a look at Tropical Storm Marco and Laura, so be sure to look for that later today.
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