Cold front brings some gusty thunderstorms late

Thunderstorm Chances

Late day thunderstorms are possible for portions of the Finger Lakes region as a cold front drops south into the area.

Most of the day will be sunny, dry, and a bit blustery. Southwest winds and ample sunshine will push temperatures in the mid and upper 70s this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will develop to the north during the mid-afternoon hours. There is good agreement on the models this morning that these storms will drop south into our region for the late afternoon and early evening hours, weakening as they do so.

As such, the best chance for thunderstorms will be along the shore of Lake Ontario and into northern Central New York. Lightning, downpours, and locally damaging winds will be possible with the storms.

As they track further inland, the daytime heating will be waning, and thunderstorms should quickly start to lose their punch.

Lightning will become less common, though some gusty winds will remain possible as the line tracks into a corridor roughly stretching from Geneseo to Canandaigua to Cortland.

Further south, the rain will not arrive until after sunset. As the rain works into the Southern Tier, it will dissipate. A rumble of thunder or slight wind gust is not out of the question but should not be expected in these areas.

By the time the line gets to the NY-PA state line, there should be little left to it.

The Zip-Code forecasts have been updated to outline this scenario, so check out your town’s forecast for timing and anticipated strength of any storms later on today.

Quick Rain Update for Next Week

Hurricane Delta made landfall in Louisiana yesterday and is now a minimal tropical storm over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Unfortunately, there is still a large amount of variation in the models for how much rain we could potentially see in our area, mostly on Monday. However, the trend has been away from significant rain due to a lack of influence from a weather system moving in from the west.

While there is still a chance for 1”+ rain amounts, the chances for minimal rain with amounts under a quarter inch is increasing.

On the flip side, a significant weather system still looks possible late in the week, which could bring us some needed rain.

A very typical autumn pattern is setting up with a strong jet stream, and thus stronger storm systems, across the Midwest and Northeast over the next couple weeks.

Do not be surprised if, within the next two weeks, we hear about significant snow in the Plains or Midwest, severe thunderstorms across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, and rain, mountain snow, and strong winds across the Northeast.

This is not a bold prediction, but just a matter of what typically happens at this time of the year with a strong jet stream.