Up and down weather continues this week

finger lakes weather forecast clouds breezy hurricane delta cold front showers
Clouds will be plentiful on Monday, but rain will be scarce until a front brings light showers tonight. A mid-week warmup will then be followed by a cold end to the week. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Early Week Rain Chances

Our week will be off to a cloudy start as the remains of Hurricane Delta pass nearby today and a front slides through early Tuesday.

Despite the clouds from Delta, little to no rain is expected in the Finger Lakes during the daytime hours today. The system approaching from the west will be too slow to pull the moisture northward until tonight, when most of the rain will already have passed by.

Therefore, it will mostly just be a cloudy and cool day. Some breaks of sunshine will be possible, especially near and north of the Thruway. Any areas that see sun, or even just thinner clouds, will have warmer temperatures.

Southeast winds will be a bit blustery today, with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph. Southeast winds favor warmer temperatures across the north as winds flow downslope across the region. This, combined with the greater chances for some sun in the north, will lead to quite a range in temperatures this afternoon.

Areas along and north of I-90 will have a shot at the mid 60s. Meanwhile, the stretch from Elmira to Binghamton, where clouds will be thickest and the chance for a stray shower greatest, will struggle to rise much, sticking in the low 50s.

The chances for light showers will increase through the evening as the front approaches and some of Delta’s lingering moisture is pulled north into our area. The chances for showers will continue into Tuesday morning as the front moves through.

Behind the front, Tuesday afternoon will see increasing sunshine. Winds will turn to the northwest, but the air behind the front will not be overly cold. Highs Tuesday should be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday october 12 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Mid-Week Warm-Up, Late Week Crash

Winds will turn to the southwest as soon as Tuesday evening. This will keep temperatures Tuesday night ranging through the 40s despite clear skies.

Sunshine early Wednesday will mix with some thin clouds in the afternoon. Winds will be light and may swing around to the west or even northwest for a brief time. Most areas should get into the low 60s Wednesday, though a few hilltops may end up just shy of 60.

The wind will briefly go calm Wednesday evening as a small high pressure passes overhead. Increasing south winds will develop Wednesday night with gusts around 30 mph by dawn Thursday. Gusts will build to 30-40 mph during the day Thursday.

The wind will combine with sunshine much of the day to propel temperatures back into the 70s.

A late day front should move through, though there may be little to no precipitation along the actual front.

Showers will become more likely Thursday night into Friday as the front slows down and some energy travels north along the front. A significant storm should blow up along the front later Friday or Saturday, but this will probably end up impacting New England more than our area.

Still, there is an outside chance for heavier rain if this system ends up tracking further west.

Either way, the 70s of Thursday will quickly be replaced with highs Friday and Saturday struggling to even escape the 40s.

Next week’s temperatures look less certain, but should either be near or below normal. Precipitation chances look sparser next week, which is unwelcome news after missing out on Delta and possibly missing out later in the week, too.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.