Low pressure will bring snow and sleet to the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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WHAT
Low pressure will move towards and over the Finger Lakes on Tuesday.
As the low approaches, an initial band of precipitation will move through during the morning with snow and sleet. This band will taper to lighter precipitation in the afternoon, which will gradually turn back to all snow.
Snow will increase again Tuesday evening and overnight with additional light accumulations likely.
ALERTS ACTIVE
The following weather alerts are active in the Finger Lakes Weather forecast area:
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for all of the Finger Lakes, Western New York, and Central New York.
The NWS Weather Alerts API remains down. Therefore, no alerts are showing on FLX Weather, despite the current Winter Weather Advisories.
WHEN
Precipitation will spread from southwest to northeast across the Finger Lakes between 3-8 AM. Initially, this will fall as snow, but sleet will quickly mix in for the southwestern half of the region.
Through the afternoon, precipitation will decrease in intensity and transition back to snow. The snow will increase in intensity again Tuesday evening and especially overnight.
Widespread snow will quickly end Wednesday morning with just a few lingering flurries through the day.
HOW MUCH
The highest snow totals will be in areas that do not see sleet. This is most likely along and north of I-90 and into Central New York. Accumulations by 7 PM Tuesday will be on the order of 2-4 inches, though a few locally higher amounts will be possible.
Most of the remainder of the area will see 1-2 inches of snow and sleet by 7 PM Tuesday. Less than an inch is expected in the western Southern Tier, but freezing rain could put down a glaze of ice as well.
An additional 1-3 inches of snow, not shown on the map, is expected overnight Tuesday night throughout the region.
TEMPERATURES
Temperatures will be in the mid and upper 20s to start Tuesday morning. A slow climb into the upper 20s and low 30s is expected for the afternoon with a few areas southwest of I-390 reaching 35 degrees.
For the first part of the evening, temperatures will rise into the low and mid 30s. Snow may start to accumulate during the evening, but travel conditions should improve. After midnight, temperatures will drop back into the 20s.
TRAVEL IMPACTS
The greatest travel impacts will come Tuesday morning. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will fall heavily at times while temperatures remain in the 20s. All roads will experience less than ideal travel conditions, and some secondary roads could become very slick. Allowing for additional time during the morning commute is recommended.
Travel conditions will gradually improve during the afternoon as precipitation wanes and temperatures rise. Few travel concerns are expected in the evening with temperatures mostly above freezing.
Slight travel delays will be possible again on Wednesday morning, but most major roads should be easily treated and mostly wet.
OTHER IMPACTS
A few wind gusts to 30 mph will be possible, mostly over higher elevations in the morning and again during the overnight. Morning winds will be from the southeast, while nighttime winds will turn to the northwest.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
Medium- The weather models are having a difficult time resolving the sleet and are showing inconsistencies. Most models tend to underestimate the sleet in these types of scenarios, so my forecast is more aggressive on the northeastward push of sleet. Therefore, snow totals are slightly lower than show on the models.
If the sleet does not progress as far northeast as expected, snow totals could increase by 1-2 inches for most of the region.
FUTURE SNOW OUTLOOK
A few flurries are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A better chance for lake effect snow, along with cold temperatures, will come on Friday.
I am monitoring a weather system next Monday-Tuesday that could bring snow to the area, or could completely miss the region.
FUTURE UPDATES
- Regular Tuesday morning blog post (Between 7-8 AM Tuesday)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
- Get the forecast for your Zip Code
Forecast for your Zip-Code - Finger Lakes Weather Radar
Radar - Ask Meteorologist Drew Montreuil a question
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