Shifting details of unfolding active weather pattern

finger lakes weather forecast friday february 12 2021 weekend weather snow chances
After mostly quiet conditions Friday and early Saturday, the weather will kick into a very active pattern with possibly four snow events of varying intensities over a six-day period. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Weekend Weather Forecast

A subtle impulse of atmospheric energy is moving through the Finger Lakes, producing just a couple isolated flurries.

Earlier this week, this disturbance was showing up on the models as a moderate snowfall for the region. That will not be happening, with little to no accumulation where it manages to snow.

Clouds from this energy will be with us through the morning but should gradually break up this afternoon. After a brief period of mostly clear skies this evening, clouds will increase again overnight.

Temperatures today will be on the chilly side with highs in the mid and upper teens. A drop into the single digits is expected tonight, but the increasing clouds should keep most areas above zero degrees.

Much of Saturday will be cloudy with a chance for some light snow showers in the afternoon. The snow will become more widespread during the evening. However, like the snow that did not materialize today, the trend for Saturday night’s snow has taken a substantial downturn.

Most areas should expect one to two inches Saturday night, with a few localized areas approaching three inches. The snow should end early Sunday and some sun may work out by the afternoon hours.

High temperatures Saturday will again be in the mid and upper teens, but Sunday should return to the low and mid 20s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday february 12 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Busy Week Ahead

One reason Saturday night’s snow is trending downward is because of the absence of phasing among two different systems. Now that these two are expected to remain distinct, we have to add snow into the forecast on Monday as the second piece moves in.

This snow should move in during the morning and fall steadiest during the afternoon. The snow should quickly end during the evening. Accumulations look to be in the 2-4 inch range. Temperatures Monday will be in the upper teens to near 20, meaning this snow should be fluffy, like the snow we’ve seen this week.

Hot on the heels of Monday’s system will be a stronger storm on Tuesday. Most of the region should see just snow from this, but sleet and freezing rain may mix in over the southeastern areas. Heavy precipitation is expected Tuesday morning, but dry air wrapping into the system may cut us off shortly thereafter.

An early look at accumulations place this quick but intense event in the 4-8 inch range. Temperatures will get a boost into the low 30s, at least, as the dry air wraps in Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday will be a day to catch our breath. A little light lake effect may try to develop, but for the most part, it looks sunny. Temperatures will settle back into the low and mid 20s for afternoon highs.

Snow will make another run at our area late Thursday and into Friday. This system is still far enough away that the track and intensity are very uncertain. Models are in good agreement in the presence of the storm system, but the details remain fuzzy. It will be something to monitor over the coming days.

Behind Friday’s system, a milder and quieter weather pattern is favored. This would be more of a resetting to seasonal averages than a significant push of above average temperatures.

There is still time for this to change, though, as it seems like a return to average has been showing on the models about 10 days away since the cold started in mid-January.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday february 12 2021This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.