Quick Saturday updates on upcoming snow events

finger lakes weather forecast saturday february 13 2021
A very active pattern of winter weather will have escalating impacts on the Finger Lakes over the next several days at least.

An anomalously busy pattern of winter weather events will unfold across the Finger Lakes over the next week. Here are a few quick updates as of Saturday.

Saturday Night

Snow showers will move into the Finger Lakes tonight. While a few flurries may be possible before the sun goes down, most of the snow will fall after sunset.

The atmosphere is very dry and the incoming disturbance is weak. Snowfall amounts should be light as a result.

The best chance for over 2 inches will be north of I-90. To the south, many areas may not even reach an inch of snow.

Travel should be minimally impacted overnight. The snow will end early Sunday with no additional snow expected.

Monday

Update- Winter Storm Watches have now been issued for the entire region for Monday and Tuesday.
Steady snow will spread across the Finger Lakes from the west Monday morning. Snowfall rates will be light to moderate.

The heaviest snow amounts are expected west of I-390, where three or four inches may fall. Between 1-390 and about Cayuga Lake, one to two inches is likely. East of Cayuga Lake, snow amounts may stick closer to an inch.

Travel will be moderately impacted, especially in the west.

These amounts are for the daytime hours Monday. The snow may briefly end Monday evening, but the next system will already be moving in.

Tuesday

Heavy snow will develop overnight Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Ice may mix in for the southeastern Finger Lakes, roughly from Elmira to Ithaca to Cortland and further southeast.

The snow will gradually wind down Tuesday afternoon, but could linger into the evening, especially over the northwestern Finger Lakes.

Significant travel disruptions are likely, and the potential for over a foot of snow is not out of the question. Uncertainties still remain, which could impact snow totals greatly.

Thursday

After a quiet day on Wednesday, yet another strong storm system will become possible later Thursday and Thursday night.

So far, there has been good support for this on the models, but of course storm track will have a large impact on the effects of the storm here in the Finger Lakes.

It is too early to speculate on any further details. Given that future-focused weather hype tends to be its worse while the present weather is active, be especially wary of click-bait headlines and premature forecasts for this final system.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

3 Responses

  1. Avatar
    T
    |

    What are my chances of being able to drive from Ithaca to Syracuse Sat. Feb 20 at morning/mid-day without running into bad weather/snow/ice? (trying to get the vaccination)
    Thanks

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      It is early, but there could be some lingering lake effect in the Syracuse area. Keep an eye on the forecast.

  2. Avatar
    Gail B Dalmat
    |

    I have to love this forecast for Tuesday: “Heavy snow will develop overnight Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Ice may mix in for the southeastern Finger Lakes, roughly from Elmira to Ithaca to Cortland and further southeast.

    “The snow will gradually wind down Tuesday afternoon, but could linger into the evening, especially over the northwestern Finger Lakes.

    “Significant travel disruptions are likely, and the potential for over a foot of snow is not out of the question. Uncertainties still remain, which could impact snow totals greatly.” This afternoon I shoveled a path around the front of my car (afraid to try backing in because the power steering started groaning just as I turned onto my street) and spread petsafe de icer on the ice that developed a week ago alongside the car, as well as on the porch. We don’t need to complicate this any more than needed. Meanwhile, my Mom’s expecting 4-8″ on the Oklahoma-Texas border, my son in Tacoma WA sent video of snow (he says showing no sign of slowing). I do like a memorable season, though, and this IS one.