Severe thunderstorms possible Monday

finger lakes weather forecast sunday june 20 2021 monday thunderstorms june 21 2021
After a couple showers and storms Sunday afternoon and early Monday, a more robust severe thunderstorm event will be possible Monday afternoon. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Monday Storm Potential

A stormy day will unfold across the Finger Lakes tomorrow with at least scattered severe thunderstorms likely.

Before we get to tomorrow, just a quick reminder that there is also a chance for a few pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon. These will be especially possible across the southern half of the region in the latter half of the day. Be aware if you are out with Dad this afternoon on the boat or having a BBQ.

Additional showers and a couple thunderstorms will be possible in the hours surrounding dawn Monday as left-over activity from storms tonight in the Great Lakes moves through. These should move out shortly after sunrise, leaving a mix of sun and clouds through the morning and midday hours.

Gusty southwest winds will develop Monday morning with gusts of 30-40 mph. These winds will import hot and humid air northward into the Finger Lakes. By the early afternoon, most places will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70.

An incoming cold front will trigger multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening. Winds aloft are moderately favorable for supporting severe thunderstorms, and the temperature and moisture profiles are very favorable.

As a result, scattered to numerous strong to severe storms should develop. The primary threats will be damaging winds, but large hail will also be possible. The tornado threat is low, but present.

There are a couple ways this event could end up failing to come together for a robust event, however. The timing and cloud cover associated with the early morning showers could delay heating. Also, if too many storms fire up too fast, they could interfere with one another to some degree and lessen the impact.

Be sure to check back tomorrow morning for an update and expect live blog updates throughout the afternoon with unrivaled, up-to-the-second analysis and storm updates.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.