Heavy rain risk Sunday afternoon and evening

finger lakes weather forecast sunday july 11 2021 heavy rain flash flood watch
Flash flooding will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, especially in the I-81 corridor. This is just the start of a multi-day heavy rain risk.

Sunday AM Update

After a break in the weather yesterday, an approaching warm front today will bring rainy, humid weather back into the region.

Conditions will be dry this morning, but an influx of rain is expected to push into the region this afternoon. At first, the rain will mainly be light. However, as the rain spreads through the Finger Lakes from the south, the intensity will pick up.

The rain today will be widespread and long-lasting, not like the on and off rains of the last week.

There will be several atmospheric factors going on behind the scenes as well that will make our region susceptible to torrential downpours and high rain rates. Downpours will be capable of producing rain rates at well over an inch per hour during the second half of the afternoon and into the evening, and localized rain totals near or over three inches is not out of the question.

As I said a number of times in the last week, our region can only do this for so long before flooding becomes an issue. We are rapidly approaching that point.

The Weather Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service, has most of the region in a Level 2- SLIGHT risk for excessive rainfall. More specifically, Cortland and Onondaga counties, along with other areas further east, are under Flash Flood Watches. These may need to be expanded, as the whole region has at least some risk for flooding.

If there is any good news today, it is that the thunderstorm risk will be limited to non-severe rumbles within the larger area of rain.

Unfortunately, we are going to be dealing with this for several days. The WPC also has at least parts of the FLX in a SLIGHT risk category for Monday and Tuesday (their excessive rainfall outlooks only go out three days). There will be a better chance for thunderstorms and isolated wind damage Monday and Tuesday as well.

Please remember flood safety protocols, especially at nighttime when flooding risks are much harder to assess. This includes never driving through floodwaters, which is how most flooding-related deaths occur.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.