Weather warms, remains mainly dry even through the weekend

finger lakes weather forecast thursday august 5 20201 sunny warm weekend rain chances
While the chances for showers will increase this weekend, many areas will probably still remain dry. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Warmer Temperatures

A gradual eastward shift in high pressure will allow warmer air to start to infiltrate the Finger Lakes region.

Temperatures this morning are starting off a bit less chilly than the last couple days. Many areas are in the 55-60 degree range, and even the coldest pockets are around 50 degrees. This is just a subtle signal of the warming trend that will take hold.

Overall, today will be similar to the rest of the week. Fair-weather clouds will develop later this morning and linger through the afternoon. An isolated, brief sprinkle cannot be ruled out, but should not be anticipated.

Temperatures will be a touch warmer than yesterday with more areas hitting 80 degrees and higher elevations getting into the upper 70s. Humidity levels will remain low with dewpoints generally in the 50s.

The wind will be nearly calm today but will turn into a light southerly breeze overnight. Most areas will stay above 55 degrees and more areas will be near 60 by dawn Friday. Winds will increase to 5-10 mph during the day Friday, still coming in from the south and southwest.

With another day of sunshine and fair weather clouds, the wind should boost temperatures by about five degrees. Widespread mid 80s are likely tomorrow with higher elevations near or above 80 as well. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s.

Again, a stray shower cannot be ruled out, but the chances for rain are extremely small.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 5 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Rain Chances

The warming trend will stall out this weekend, though humidity levels will start to creep upwards.

Saturday will match Friday in both temperature and humidity, with most areas in the mid 80s for highs and upper 50s for dewpoints.

The chances for rain on Saturday are a bit higher than they are today and tomorrow, but not as high as the models had been showing. Most areas will probably get through the day without rain, but a few showers will dot the region during the afternoon.

A couple stray showers will continue Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon. The best chance for rain will be during Sunday afternoon, but even then, it is starting to look like many areas will miss out on the few stray showers.

The subtle disturbance triggering the rain chances will also shift the wind for Sunday, cutting off the supply for warm air from the south. Highs will mostly be in the low 80s, but dewpoints will sneak into the 60s Saturday night and remain there through Sunday.

Southerly winds will be back early next week, and the warming trend will continue. A few areas will flirt with 90 degrees by Monday while Tuesday has the potential to challenge for the hottest day so far this year.

The chances for rain do not increase substantially until the middle or latter half of next week. However, it is a bit early to pinpoint the details.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 5 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.