New pattern of heat and humidity emerges this weekend

finger lakes weather forecast friday august 6 2021 hot humid weekend
Temperatures will spend the weekend in the mid 80s with increasing humidity. Hotter weather is likely next week. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Temperatures Stepping Up

For much of the week, high pressure has been overhead, keeping winds light and temperatures in check.

Now, however, a new pattern is setting up, with high pressure off the Atlantic coast and an active storm track through the Midwest and into eastern Canada. The background flow of air around the backside of the high pressure will be from the south. This will be enhanced by low pressure systems tracking to our northwest.

The end result will be an increase in heat and humidity across the Finger Lakes through the weekend and especially next week.

Temperatures will take a leap into the mid 80s for most areas this afternoon. Higher elevations in Central New York and the western Southern Tier will be in the low 80s. The humidity will not yet arrive, with dewpoints remaining comfortably in the 50s.

Skies will be sunny with a few fair-weather clouds passing through. The chances for a stray shower are hardly worth mentioning, but are just slightly above zero.

Fair weather clouds will dissipate late this afternoon, but a deck of thin overcast will build in overnight. This will help hold the warm air in place with overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s.

The thin overcast will linger throughout tomorrow. The rain chances will again be near, but not quite at zero. Despite the extra clouds, highs will again generally be in the mid 80s.

South and southwest winds will blow steadily, but not strongly, both Friday and Saturday. Look for daytime wind speeds of 5-10 mph and gusts around 20 mph.

The rain chances will increase for Sunday as a weather system passes by in the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are likely but should not be widespread enough to ensure everyone sees rain. Most of the day will probably be dry.

Highs on Sunday will still be in the mid 80s, but probably at or just below 85 degrees as opposed to today and tomorrow, which will be at or just above 85 degrees for many. Dewpoints will be noticeably higher in the mid and upper 60s as the humid air arrives.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 6 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Hot Next Week

Temperatures will take another step or two forward next week.

Sunshine will return to the area on Monday as south winds continue to blow. Temperatures across the region will average out to be near 90, but many of the typically warmer northern areas, especially near Rochester, should push past 90 degrees.

Monday night will be muggy and warm, with lows probably not dropping out of the 70s. That will become a new normal, at least for a few days next week.

Tuesday looks like the hottest day with widespread temperatures at or above 90 degrees. Several areas could push to or above the 95 degree mark if everything comes together right.

However, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible later in the day, which could put a cap on how hot it gets.

Dewpoints by this time will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, which could result in hazardous heat index values for some areas.

Wednesday will probably not match Tuesday’s heat due to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Highs will still be near 90.

As rain chances increase late next week, temperatures will retreat into the 80s. The best chance for rain looks to be in the vicinity of next Thursday.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 6 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.