Heat continues through Friday with occasional storms

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday august 11 2021 hot heat advisories thunderstorms
It will be hot and humid today and even more so on Thursday. Occasional thunderstorms will also move through the area. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Heat Wave

The National Weather Service has issued Heat Advisories for all counties of the Finger Lakes as our late summer heat wave continues.

Temperatures are mostly starting out in the 70s this morning, which is both getting us off to a running start for another hot day and is supporting some thunderstorms left over from the Midwest last night in the far western Finger Lakes.

These storms are already undergoing a weakening trend and should dissipate by the mid-morning as they track east-northeast through our region.

This early morning activity may lay down some subtle wind and temperature boundaries that could serve as a focal point for storm development this afternoon. The models have done a poor job showing the current activity, and thus are hard to trust for the later conditions.

Between this morning and any late day development, the main focus will be on the heat and humidity. Many places will be near 90 degrees today. Dewpoints will continue to sit around or over 70 degrees. Heat index values will be over 95 degrees, and in a few places, possibly at or above 100.

The heat and humidity will provide fuel for storms later, but without much to trigger the storms, lake breezes, geographic-induced boundaries, and the aforementioned boundaries from this morning’s storms will be key.

Any storms that do form will likely have frequent to continuous lightning and heavy rain. A few storms may also contain some locally damaging wind gusts.

The threat for storms will continue into the evening and overnight, but again remains highly uncertain.

Thursday will bring more of the same, only hotter. Almost all the Finger Lakes should eclipse 90 degrees and many northern areas will push into the mid 90s. Heat index values over 100 will become more common.

Thunderstorms will again be possible, but will again be highly dependent on subtle boundaries for development. As such, the threat from the storms remains highly uncertain.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday august 11 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cold Front

Friday will be similar to today, with highs around 90 degrees and scattered showers and storms. A cold front will move through during the nighttime hours.

This front should trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Given that the timing of the front is at night, the severe thunderstorm risk should be minimal.

The front will probably be sweeping away the hot and humid air early Saturday morning from northwest to southeast. Temperatures may even drop several degrees after sunrise Saturday, briefly making it into the upper and mid 60s.

Scattered showers will also be possible early Saturday, especially the further south and east you go.

Saturday afternoon should turn partly cloudy with a steady, cooling northwest wind in place. Highs will top out in the mid 70s. Dewpoints will settle comfortably in the mid 50s.

Sunday should be a pleasant, albeit slightly cool, day. Plenty of sunshine is expected, mixing at times with passing clouds. Highs will be in the low to perhaps mid 70s after morning lows start in the mid and upper 50s.

Monday will bring a third comfortable day with highs in the mid 70s and a mix of sun and clouds.

Our mid-week weather will be determined by the eventual path of Tropical Storm Fred, which is a minimal storm that will move across the island of Hispaniola today. How this weak storm interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola will impact its strengthening thereafter as it heads towards so

uthern Florida and/or the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Fred is expected to remain a small storm, so it would take a perfect alignment to send any significant rain into our region. As I said yesterday, long-range forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks are extremely unreliable, so this is merely something to watch for now.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday august 11 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.