Cold front ends humidity; Keeping an eye on Ida

finger lakes weather forecast monday august 30 2021 cold front humidity hurricane ida
A cold front will end the humidity late today as the remains of Hurricane Ida start to track northeastward. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Goodbye Humidity

A definitive cold front will sweep through the Finger Lakes today, bringing an end to the excessive humidity over the Finger Lakes, possibly for a very long time.

This front is poised off to the west this morning, with a few stray showers out ahead of it dotting the region. The shower activity will pick up slightly during the later morning and midday hours. However, this front will move through with little fanfare. Many areas will see only light rain, or no rain at all.

By the mid-afternoon, the showers will have shifted off to the southeast and the front will start to press through the region. Behind the front, clouds will start to break up for some late day sunshine.

Dewpoints will remain near 70 until the front makes it through. After that, they will retreat into the 60s from northwest to southeast. Temperatures today will not be impacted by the front, with highs around 80 degrees and no noticeable drop behind the front until the daytime heating wanes late in the day.

The front will not have much wind, either. Ahead of the front, southwest and west winds will blow at 5-10 mph. These will turn to the northwest behind the front with similar speeds.

By this evening, winds will drop, skies will become mostly clear, and temperatures will fall back into the 60s.

The clearing will be brief, though, as some thin clouds high in the atmosphere stream into our area far out ahead of what was Hurricane Ida.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 30 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Watching Ida & Looking into September

Thin clouds will continue to be present off and on throughout Tuesday and Tuesday night as the remains of Ida tracks into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. No rain is expected in our area on Tuesday.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the mid and upper 70s. A few places, such as Rochester and Geneva, may hit 80 degrees. Winds will be light and dewpoints will be comfortable in the upper 50s.

By Wednesday morning, rain from Ida will spread into Pennsylvania. While a heavy rain event throughout the Finger Lakes is still on the fringe edge of possibility, it is highly unlikely.

That being said, what is more possible would be for heavy rain to clip the southeastern Finger Lakes. While the models are currently trending northward, it is still a less likely scenario. Most, if not all of the rain should stay south of the region.

There will be little difference between little to no rain, and heavy rain in excess of an inch or two. So, any northward progression could bring a flood risk into the southeastern Finger Lakes.

The bottom line is that heavy rainfall should stay south of all of the region. However, there is enough uncertainty that areas from Bath to Ithaca to Cortland, and southward, need to continue to monitor the weather for Wednesday closely.

Any lingering rain will quickly depart early Thursday and sunshine will spread across the region. High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low 70s.

The weather looks quiet and dry through the end of the week and the weekend before rain chances increase early next week.

Temperatures will bottom out on Friday with highs mostly sticking to the upper 60s. A small warm up back into the 70s is expected for the weekend. However, with unsettled weather next week, temperatures may continue to struggle to even reach 70 degrees.

Nighttime temperatures in the 50s will become commonplace, and occasions of 40s in the typically cooler areas will start to occur. Muggy air will be hard to come by, with dewpoints commonly sticking to the 40s and 50s.

This pattern is expected to persist at least into the middle of September.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday august 30 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Suan Yong

    There’s a confusing sentence in this 08/30 forecast: There will be little difference between little to no rain, and heavy rain in excess of an inch or two.

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Meaning it will be a very tight geographic gradient. A difference of 25 miles could separate a quarter-inch rain event and a 2-3 inch rain event.