A few showers today and again Friday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday october 13 2021 sun clouds showers cold front
Sunshine will be harder to come by but temperatures will stay mild until a strong storm system Saturday changes our weather pattern. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Late Week Weather

The weather will stay warmer than average for several more days, but sunshine will be replaced with clouds and some showers.

A weak cold front is moving through the region today. Clouds are plentiful ahead of the front this morning, and a few showers have developed, mainly across Onondaga and Cayuga counties. Some additional development to the south is possible early this morning, but most areas will stay dry.

Clouds will remain in place into the afternoon. Additional scattered showers will develop, especially during the mid-afternoon hours. A few breaks of sunshine will also be possible this afternoon between the showers.

All in all, today will be far from a washout. Most areas will see either no rain, or only a brief light shower. A couple isolated locations could see some heavier, but still brief rain or multiple showers.

With the clouds and showers, temperatures will retreat a few degrees. Highs will mostly be in the low 70s with a few mid 70s popping up as well.

Showers will diminish tonight, but clouds will remain in place to some degree. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 50s.

Thursday will have more clouds than sun. Many of the clouds will be high in the atmosphere, allowing some filtered sunshine. Some thicker clouds may pass through from time to time, though. High temperatures will be near or just above 70 degrees.

Friday will have more scattered showers. The details are still a bit uncertain and may partially hinge on activity that develops to the west Thursday afternoon and evening. Skies will be rather cloudy, but a developing south wind will push temperatures in the mid and upper 70s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday october 13 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Strong, Pattern Changing Storm System

South winds will pick up steam Friday night as low pressure strengthens over Lake Erie. Gusts may start to approach 30 mph after midnight, especially over higher elevations. This, combined with cloud cover, will keep overnight temperatures in the mid 60s.

The wind will only increase after sunrise, with gusts reaching as high as 40 mph Saturday morning. Temperatures should rise into the low and mid 70s by midday.

Saturday afternoon, a band of rain will develop and race across the region. This band will probably have little to no lightning with it, but may still be capable of strong winds. A severe thunderstorm watch and/or severe thunderstorm warnings may be issued.

Heavy rain will accompany this system. After the initial burst of rain and wind along the leading edge of the band, moderate to heavy rain could last another hour or two behind the burst. All in all, the set up looks similar to Halloween Night in 2019.

Temperatures will drop into the 50s Saturday afternoon as winds turn to the northwest. By Sunday morning, most areas will be in the 40s.

Showers are possible on Sunday, likely with some enhancement off the Great Lakes. As such, the best chance for rain will be across Wayne, Cayuga, Onondaga, and Cortland counties in the east, and into Allegany County in the west.

Winds will be strongest in the morning when gusts to 30 mph will be possible. The afternoon will be breezy, but not quite as strong. These winds will be from the northwest and will help hold temperatures in the mid 50s.

Monday will start off with some scattered lake effect rain showers with lows ranging through the 40s. As the day goes on, the sun will come out. The morning will again be windy, with gusts over 30 mph especially likely east of Seneca Lake. Gusts will drop below 30 mph for the afternoon.

High temperatures on Monday will again be in the mid 50s. Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday look a bit warmer with higher returning to the 60s.

Most of next week looks dry, but a late week front may bring a few showers and will subsequently send temperatures back into the 50s for next weekend.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday october 13 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. KRISTEN
    | Reply

    Hi Drew,

    We live on West Hill of Ithaca and have an outdoor farewell event (to keep things COVID-safe) for friends moving to PA with a back yard gathering of 20 neighbors planned for this Saturday afternoon–originally planned to go from 3 PM-5 PM. If we move the event earlier in day to run from 11:30 AM to 1 PM, will we avoid the rain or is the timing still pretty uncertain? We could also move it to Sunday afternoon but that sounds also possibly rainy and much colder. Thanks for any guidance! Kristen

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      | Reply

      Hi Kristen! The timing is still a bit uncertain, but as thing looks right now, Ithaca looks to be in the thick of things during that 3-5 PM time period. If that holds, earlier would be better, though there will still be some showers around. Sunday will be colder, but Ithaca sometimes stays just south of lake effect on a northwest flow, so it is possible that it will not be too wet then.

      Either day, winds will be strong (especially Saturday morning), so be aware of that if you are planning to use any tents, decorations, etc.

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