Just a few lake effect showers Tuesday and Wednesday

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday november 2 2021 lake effect showers
Most of the next two days will be dry, but a few lake effect showers and nighttime flurries will be possible. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Scattered Showers

Cold, semi-moist air continues to rotate around a large low pressure system sitting over eastern Canada.

This chilly air mass has already been producing some lake effect rain showers and a few snowflakes since last night. This will continue to be the case for the next two days until dry air and unfavorable winds take over.

The lake effect is very limited this morning with just a few stray showers in the Finger Lakes. This will be the case for much of the day today and tomorrow, though there are a few times where the lake effect will be a little better organized.

One such time is this afternoon and early evening. The lake effect should spend the morning getting a bit better organized off Lake Erie and some stray showers will make their way through the southern half of the region during the second half of today.

It will be hard for any snow to mix in during the daytime hours, but some graupel may fall.

Winds will be from the west-southwest at 5-10 mph today with top gusts between 20-25 mph. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s near Lake Ontario to the low 40s in the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier.

Tonight will be more of the same with some snow showers across the southern half of the region and especially west of I-390. A few hilltops could see a light dusting of snow, but generally no accumulation is expected.

Outside of the lake effect, skies will be mostly clear tonight. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s near the lakes to the upper 20s and low 30s away from the lakes. The best chance for 20s will be across the Southern Tier and into Cortland County.

Winds will shift around midday Wednesday to a northwesterly direction. A band of showers off Lake Ontario will drop south and dissipate. Again, mostly rain will fall, but some graupel may mix in. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph.

High temperatures will be in the mid 40s with some higher elevations in the low 40s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 2 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quiet Through the Weekend

Conditions for lake effect will deteriorate as winds turn to the southwest. The overall loss of lake effect clouds will overpower any warming effect of the southwest winds Wednesday night. Near lake areas will be in the low 30s. Mid 20s will be widespread through the Southern Tier.

There could still be a stray shower or two Wednesday night and into Thursday, mainly in the far northwestern Finger Lakes, where the southwesterly flow could bring some lake effect off Lake Erie. For the most part, though, it should remain dry.

Sun and clouds will mix on Thursday with temperatures returning to the low and mid 40s for afternoon highs. The southwest wind will blow at around 5 mph in the morning before turning to the west and then going calm for the afternoon.

Friday will be similar with sun and clouds, highs in the low and mid 40s, and light winds. What little breeze there is will be from the northwest. Morning lows, too, will be similar, ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.

The nighttime temperature pattern will persist for Saturday and Sunday mornings. Daytime highs, however, will start to creep upwards. Saturday will see most areas in the upper 40s while Sunday gets all but a few hilltops back to near or above 50.

Both Saturday and Sunday look to be sun-filled with few if any clouds and no precipitation. Winds will remain light with south winds under 5 mph.

Temperatures will continue to climb next week with each day making it into the 50s. There is about a 50-50 shot at some rain early in the week with a greater chance as we head toward next weekend.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday november 2 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.