Low to no-impact weather through Thanksgiving

finger lakes weather forecast monday november 22 2021 sun clouds cold front lake effect thanksgiving travel
Cold air behind a front this morning will produce a few snow showers, especially overnight tonight. Warmer weather will build in for Thanksgiving. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Morning Cold Front

An early morning cold front moving through the Finger Lakes will set up some snow showers through Tuesday.

The cold front was about halfway through the region as of 7 AM this morning. A few showers and flurries dot the region out ahead of the front, but for the most part, the front is moving through with little fanfare.

Temperatures are taking a small hit with the frontal passage, dropping from the upper 30s to the mid 30s. Once making that drop, temperatures will hold more or less steady for the remainder of the daytime hours today.

A few flurries will develop behind the front. These will be few and far between with light snow. At any given time, more areas will probably be seeing some sunshine poke through the clouds than snow.

West and west-northwest winds will develop behind the front and increase with speeds near or just over 10 mph by midday and through the afternoon. Top gusts for most areas should stay just under 30 mph. Slightly higher winds can be expected along the shore of Lake Ontario.

Lake effect will organize tonight as temperatures fall into the 20s. This will produce a spray of snow showers off Lake Erie for the western Southern Tier, while a stronger band off Lake Ontario develops over Oswego County.

After midnight, the Lake Ontario band will start to drop south and will gradually become less organized. By sunrise tomorrow, the now broken band will be somewhere in the vicinity of places like Penn Yan and Ithaca.

Snow accumulations overnight will mostly be contained to Oswego County, where several inches are likely. Northeastern Wayne, far northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga could see an inch or so. Most areas to the south across the Finger Lakes will see no more than a light coating, if any accumulation at all.

The snow showers will continue to drop south early in the morning and will dissipate. Only a few stray flurries should be left by the midday hours Tuesday. Sunshine will gradually increase throughout the day.

Temperatures overnight tonight will drop into the mid 20s for most areas. Only locations directly adjacent to a lake will be a bit warmer, but staying above 30 degrees will be a challenge even in these areas.

High temperatures on Tuesday will again be limited to the mid 30s, with some higher elevations only reaching the low 30s. A stiff northwest wind will add to the chill with gusts again just under 30 mph.

The wind will turn to the southwest Tuesday night, but with mostly clear skies, temperatures will again be mostly down into the mid 20s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday november 22 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quiet and Mild Thanksgiving

As we draw closer to Thanksgiving, the weather will only improve. Travel conditions will be excellent not only in the Finger Lakes, but across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and the majority of the nation.

So much for the hyped-up Pre-Thanksgiving storm. No surprises there.

Wednesday will start with bright blue skies across the Finger Lakes. Winds will continue to become more southerly, but speeds will remain gentle at or under 5 mph.

Temperatures will warm steadily from the chilly start and highs should range through the 40s. Eastern areas will be coolest in the low 40s while the Rochester area could sneak into the upper 40s. Most will see highs within a couple degrees of 45.

Thin clouds will build in during Wednesday afternoon and will thicken during the evening. That should help temperatures stay in the mid and upper 30s Wednesday night.

Thanksgiving Day will have some sunshine poking in and out of the clouds. Late in the day, the clouds will become thicker, and a few evening showers will be possible. Any rain that falls should be light, and snow will not be a concern after highs top out around 50 degrees.

Colder air will march back in behind a cold front early Friday morning. Like today, a few snow showers will develop in the wake of this front with temperatures sitting in the mid 30s throughout the day.

Lake effect snow showers will be possible on Saturday and Sunday. At this time, it looks as though minor accumulations may be possible. On the flip side, however, the models so far this year have overdone the lake effect this far out and had showed similar snow for Tuesday when looking last week.

So, at this point, I remain skeptical that more than some scatted snow showers will impact us during the weekend, but will certainly continue to monitor the possibility throughout the week.

Next week, we leave November behind and enter December, but Winter still looks largely absent. Temperatures look as though they will trend upward for early December and what snow there is looks mainly like scattered flurries here and there.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday november 22 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.