Clouds are plentiful across the Finger Lakes this morning as a weather system passes by to our north.
Precipitation is limited to a few stray, brief showers dotting the region. The vast majority of the area will not see any rainfall today.
The cold front associated with this system will move through during the morning hours. Ahead of the front, it will remain warm and on the muggy side. But behind the front, drier air will build in on northwest winds.
Wind speeds will increase to around 10 mph by the late morning and persist through the afternoon. As the dry air takes over, the clouds will start to break up and sunshine will increase through the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s for most areas.
Skies will clear tonight, and temperatures will slide back to the upper 50s and low 60s. Winds will turn to the south overnight but will remain light. After sunrise, the wind will increase slightly and shift a bit to the southwest.
With bright, sunny skies in place, temperatures will feed off the warming winds and rise in a hurry on Wednesday. By the time thin clouds build in from the west during the afternoon, temperatures will be into the upper 80s and low 90s. Humidity levels will remain low on Wednesday with dewpoints in the 50s.
Clouds will persist Wednesday night and southwest winds will increase to just under 10 mph. Dewpoints will start to increase as well, all adding up to a warm, muggy night. Overnight lows will range through the 70s. A few areas in Monroe and Wayne counties may barely dip below 80 degrees.
Hot, then Stormy
Mainly thin clouds and steady southwest winds will continue into Thursday. The fact that the sunshine may be filtered may knock a degree or two off the expected highs, but it will still be plenty hot and humid.
Afternoon highs should be at or above 90 degrees for all areas, even the higher elevations. Mid 90s are likely for much of the area. Getting much beyond 95 degrees will require some extra sunshine, though. However, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s, the heat index will be several degrees higher. Heat Advisories will be necessary for much of the area.
By the early evening hours, a couple isolated showers and storms may pop up, but once again, most of the area will stay dry.
That will not be the case overnight and into Friday as a front moves in and stalls out. The chances for rain will increase through the night and especially into Friday morning and the early afternoon. While the precipitation still looks scattered at any given time, there is reason to hope that there will be enough of it over a long enough period that most areas should see at least a quarter inch, but locally much more.
Scattered showers and storms are also likely on Saturday and could linger into Sunday as well. Throughout this three-day period, winds aloft look weak, which should prevent any broad-scale severe weather threats.
Temperatures will remain warm and humidity will remain high as long as the front is nearby. Exactly how warm it gets through the weekend will depend on how the rain evolves each day. Sunday looks the warmest right now, a direct correlation to it also being the day with the lower rain chances.
How the front moves early next week is still questionable, but in time, the front should clear through the region. This will lead to a decrease in temperatures and humidity, and there is even a chance for below average temperatures come late next week and next weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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