Cooler air moves in today, but warmer temperatures are not far behind

finger lakes weather forecast thursday september 1 2022 cool high pressure sunny
High temperatures today will be 65-70 degrees, but tomorrow will add on at least 10 degrees to those highs. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

High Pressure

Another cold front dropped through the Finger Lakes overnight, but now high pressure is building in from the southeast.

The parent low pressure system that has sent several cold fronts through the area in the last couple of days is now situated north of Maine. With the low to the northeast and the high to the southwest, northwest winds will blow today.

These winds will be strongest to the northeast, closer to the low. From roughly Rochester to Geneva to Ithaca and northward, wind speeds at or above 10 mph are expected, with gusts approaching 30 mph. This will especially be the case through the early afternoon, after which lighter winds will gradually take over.

There are some patches of clouds this morning, especially south and southeast of Lake Ontario. As high pressure builds in and strengthens, the clouds should become more scattered and then dissipate altogether this afternoon.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side, with highs near or just above 70 across the Southern Tier and west of Seneca Lake, with mid and upper 60s east of Seneca Lake and in Wayne County. The temperature will quickly drop tonight as the high passes overhead. Skies will be clear and winds calm this evening, sending temperatures quickly into the 50s.

After midnight, a south wind will pick up as the high moves over New England and continues to strengthen. The south winds should stabilize temperatures, resulting in morning lows mainly in the 50-55 degree range. Some pockets of 40s are likely in the southeastern Finger Lakes.

Friday will be another sun-filled day, but this time with light south winds throughout the day. Only a few thin clouds are expected, especially in the afternoon. Temperatures will jump about 30 degrees over the morning lows for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

South winds will increase to 5-10 mph Friday night, holding temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. The wind will turn to the southwest and decrease to around 5 mph for the daytime hours Saturday.

With plenty of sunshine and just a few thin clouds, highs should have no trouble reaching the mid 80s for most. Higher elevations will be in the low 80s, while a few pockets of upper 80s will be possible between Rochester and Geneva.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 1 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled Weather

On Sunday, a frontal boundary will drop south toward the region. Unfortunately, this boundary is proving to be a difficult one for the models to handle, lending to lower than usual confidence.

At its earliest, rain could arrive during the nighttime hours on Saturday. More likely will be some morning showers on Sunday, followed by some afternoon thunderstorms. Unless the front is delayed into Sunday afternoon, the southern half of the region will stand a better chance for storms than the north.

Temperatures on Sunday will also be reliant on the speed and position of the frontal boundary. A slower, afternoon arrival would allow temperatures to sneak towards the 80s. An earlier arrival would result in 70s.

There remains a possibility, and a growing one at that, that this boundary will get hung up over the region for Monday and possibly Tuesday. This means there is at least a chance for some scattered showers, if not more substantial rain. But, at this time, it remains very uncertain.

As we head into the middle of next week, the chances for dry weather increase, but even then, there is still a small chance that this boundary, or other weather systems, could have an influence with some more showers. Unsettled weather will remain likely into the following week as well.

Like Sunday, temperatures will depend on the precipitation chances, with highs mostly in the 70s, but with some 80s on dry days.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 1 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.