Frosty night ahead as dry air gradually clears skies

finger lakes weather forecast thursday september 29 2022 high pressure cold night frost advisories
Temperatures will vary greatly by location tonight as geographic influences are maximized. Many areas will end up frosty, though. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Frost Advisories

An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually clear our skies, just in time to create ideal conditions for cooling and a frost tonight.

Plenty of cloud cover is still locked in place this morning throughout the region. A few spits of drizzle or a brief shower cannot be ruled out, but most areas will remain dry throughout the day today. Little change is expected through the morning.

This afternoon, a gradual decrease in cloud cover is expected, roughly from north to south through the region. Timing the clearing is always a tricky proposition in these situations, so some areas may end up with plenty of sunshine this afternoon while others may have to wait until late in the day to get the sun out.

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With the center of the high pressure to our west, winds will remain from the north-northwest once again today. Through the morning, wind speeds could be as high as 10 mph, but will drop to around 5 mph by the late afternoon. Top gusts, coming this morning, will be 20-25 mph.

The stubbornness of the clouds and the northerly flow will ensure cool temperatures this afternoon. Most areas will only see the mid 50s, though some upper 50s are likely, especially if the sun makes its way out sooner rather than later.

Tonight, the high will move in overhead. Any lingering clouds will quickly vanish and winds will become nearly calm. This will present perfect conditions for rapid nighttime cooling, and many areas will quickly reach the 30s this evening.

Outside of immediate lakeshore areas where temperatures are frequently moderated at this time of the year, most of the Finger Lakes will drop into the mid 30s. Colder pockets are likely as well, with some areas seeing low 30s or even slipping just below 30 degrees.

Widespread frost and isolate freeze conditions are likely. Frost Advisories are in place for all counties except Yates, Ontario, Seneca, Wayne, and northern Cayuga. Still, even in these areas, isolated pockets of frost are possible away from the lakes.

Friday morning should start out sunny, but clouds from Ian will quickly build in from the south. These will be thin clouds that allow at least some sun to filter through. There may be some times when the clouds break for some blue sky.

Temperatures will be a touch warmer on Friday as the northerly connection to cold air is reduced. Expect highs near or just above 60 degrees with a whisper of a northeast wind.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 29 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Dry Into Next Week… Most Likely

Clouds will remain in place Friday night and should thicken further. Temperatures will not be nearly as cold as a result. Most areas should end up a degree or two on either side of 45 degrees by Saturday morning with no frost.

Saturday will be an overcast day with varying degrees of sunlight filtering through. For the most part, it will probably end up a grey day.

While the major, global models keep rain from Ian to the south, the European model does bring it as close as northern Pennsylvania. Several smaller-scale models do bring some showers in on Saturday, especially for the southern half of the Finger Lakes.

This tells me that there is still a chance we could see some rain from Ian. The interplay between the decaying remnants of Ian and a second high pressure over Canada will be key, and there is likely to be a very sharp cutoff between rain and no rain. Hopefully this will be cleared up more by tomorrow morning’s blog post. For now, though, it is reasonable to continue on as if it will not rain or will only rain minimally.

Temperatures on Saturday will partly depend on the thickness of the clouds and any showers. Low or mid 60s are most likely, though.

Clouds should break up some for Sunday, though occasional rounds of thin clouds will still be possible. There should be much more sun than on Saturday, though. Northeast winds will increase to around 10 mph, helping hold temperatures to the low 60s.

Little change is expected Monday and Tuesday as the remains of Ian meander through the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure over southeastern Canada should continue to keep our area at least partly cloudy, if not mostly sunny, and dry.

Winds will remain northerly but should not be as blustery as on Sunday. Highs will stick near or just above 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures could get frosty again but depend on how the cloud cover evolves.

A cold front will move through late in the week, preceded by a slight bump up in temperatures, and followed by more chances for frost. This front should move through on Thursday with some rain, but could hold off until Friday.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday september 29 2022This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.