Warm today before cold front Friday

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 6 2022 sun clouds warm cold front showers
A few showers will cross the region early this evening with additional spits of rain on Friday with the front. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Approaching Cold Front

The weather will undergo some noticeable changes over the next 24-48 hours as a cold front moves through the region.

Today, out ahead of the front, it will be another warm day. Light southwest winds will team up with some sunshine to push temperatures upward. Look for afternoon highs making it all the way to the low and mid 70s. This will be about ten degrees above the daily average high.

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The sunshine will be most plentiful this morning. Thin clouds ahead of the front will gradually build in and thicken. By the late afternoon, skies will probably be more cloudy than not. Precipitation is not expected until around sunset, when a few showers may develop over the western half of the region.

Those showers will make their way eastward through the early evening hours. Not all areas will end up with rain. Most areas that see rain will not see much, with generally light rainfall rates and brief periods of rain.

Nighttime temperatures will remain mild, spending most of the time above 50 degrees. Lows will be near 50 during the predawn hours.

There will be some additional showers around and after sunrise as the front approaches. These showers look even less widespread and lighter than the showers this evening. Additional spits of rain and drizzle are expected, especially later in the afternoon. There should be plenty of dry time on Friday, though, and maybe even some peeks of sun.

As the front passes through in the morning, winds will turn to the northwest and increase. Speeds will be near or just over 10 mph and gusts will reach over 25 mph, especially near the shore of Lake Ontario.

Cooler air will pour into the region. Temperatures may rise to the mid or upper 50s in the morning before the front, but will spend much of the day between 50-55 degrees. Once the sun sets, temperatures will quickly fall into the 40s.

Lake effect rain showers will increase Friday night as temperatures fall, with on and off showers southeast of Lake Ontario throughout the night.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday october 6 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weather This Weekend, Next Week

Winds over Lake Ontario will gradually shift to the west by Saturday morning, reducing the presence of showers in our area. There may even be some areas of sun to start Saturday morning.

Any areas that do clear out before sunrise may see morning temperatures dip into the mid 30s. This will be most likely in the western Southern Tier, which is furthest from Lake Ontario and typically cooler, anyway. Mid 30s could stretch across much of the southern half of the region if the clouds move out quick enough, so preparing for some patchy frost is not unreasonable.

Where the clouds and lake effect linger longest, lows in the upper 30s and low 40s are more likely.

As the surface warms Saturday morning, the cool air aloft will be a breeding ground for clouds. Much of the day will be locked into mostly cloudy skies. Dry air later in the day, combined with the loss of daytime heating, should allow for some late sunshine.

West-northwest winds will remain breezy with gusts over 25 mph possible, especially near Lake Ontario and west of Keuka Lake. High temperatures will be in the low and mid 50s.

Skies will be mostly clear Saturday night, sending temperatures into the 30s. The Southern Tier will be coldest, with pockets of low 30s possible. Mid and upper 30s will be elsewhere with areas of frost.

The weather will not change much Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday. Each day will have a mix of sunshine and a few clouds. None of these days should be as cloudy as Saturday looks to be.

Temperatures will only slightly change over the three days. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 50s while Tuesday reaches the low 60s. Overnight lows will be split between mid and upper 30s in the south, and low 40s to the north.

Quiet and warm weather is expected on Wednesday with highs making a push at least into the upper 60s. By Thursday, the next front will approach with unsettled and cooler weather to end the week.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday october 6 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.