Cold front brings cool air back into the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast friday october 7 2022 cold front clouds showers breezy
A few showers will accompany the front this morning with additional lake effect rain showers tonight. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

A Few Showers

A cold front is crossing the region early Friday morning, setting us up for a weekend of cooler temperatures.

Scattered showers are accompanying the front. The rain is light and sporadic, so not all areas will see any precipitation as the front moves through.

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A more noticeable indicator of the frontal passage will probably be the wind, which will turn to the northwest and increase. Wind speeds will build to 7-12 mph with gusts of around or slightly over 25 mph.

These winds will import cooler air, counteracting the normal daytime heating cycle. As a result, temperatures will stick to the low and mid 50s through the morning and well into the afternoon.

For the most part, today will just be cloudy. A few breaks of sun will be possible from time to time, and a couple of additional stray showers cannot be ruled out, either.

The chances for rain showers will increase after sunset tonight as lake effect gets going off Lake Ontario. Much of the region will see these showers, but southwestern areas will be the most likely to stay dry, as is typical under a northwesterly flow.

Temperatures tonight will range from the low 40s where the lake effect is most persistent to the mid 30s in those southwestern areas further from the lake effect. Most areas should end up within a couple degrees on either side of 40 degrees.

The lake effect will shift northward early Saturday morning as winds become more westerly. By mid-morning, showers should be restrained to areas north of I-90, and by noon, the entire region should be rain free.

Clouds, however, will linger well into the afternoon. Eventually, the sun should make its way out, though. It will be a cool and breezy day with highs mostly under 55 degrees. West winds will be similar in strength to today’s winds.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday october 7 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Slow Rebound

Winds will shift again Saturday evening, turning to the southwest and maintaining 5-10 mph speeds overnight. Temperatures throughout much of the region should stay near or above 40 degrees, but mid and upper 30s will be possible across the Southern Tier.

Sunday will have a mix of sun and clouds, though the clouds may take over at times. A few models hint at a couple of stray showers, but for the most part, it will be rain-free.

The wind will turn back to the west-northwest and speeds will be similar to, or even a touch stronger than, Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will get a slight nudge upward, with most areas a couple degrees on either side of 55 degrees.

Temperatures Sunday night will again mostly stick above 40 degrees, except in the Southern Tier, where upper 30s are more likely.

Monday will have a few passing showers possible. Not all areas will see rain, and what does fall should be light and brief. Both daytime and nighttime temperatures will be similar to Sunday.

Warmer air will move in on Tuesday, accompanied by bright, sunny skies. Look for highs in the low 60s, and nighttime temperatures well into the 40s. Wednesday will be warmer yet, with highs commonly in the upper 60s and a few places hitting 70. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds.

A strong storm system looks possible late next week with wind, rain, and possibly some thunder if the timing works out right. Despite the potency of this system, temperatures will only take a modest hit.

Another system will move through a few days later and will bring in a day or two of cool air that will challenge for the coldest air yet this season.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday october 7 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.