The center of high pressure has scooted off to the northeast and is now over New England, resulting in one subtle yet important change in our weather.
Winds yesterday were out of the northwest, transporting some moisture across the region off Lake Ontario. A stable layer of air just above the surface and light wind speeds trapped this moisture near the surface. The result was lingering fog and haze.
Today, the wind has shifted to the south. Moisture from Lake Ontario in the form of fog is now on the north shore of the lake over Canada, while dry air has moved into the Finger Lakes.
There is a little radiational fog in a few of the river valleys of the Southern Tier, but this should burn off quickly. Skies will be sun-filled throughout the day with few, if any, clouds.
Wind speeds will increase to just over 5 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph. The south winds and sunshine will push temperatures into the mid and upper 60s. A few warm pockets could even hit 70 degrees.
South winds will be steady tonight and may even increase in speed slightly. Towards dawn, some thin clouds will build in from the west. Morning lows will range from the mid 40s across the Southern Tier to pockets of low 50s near lakeshores.
Sunshine will mix with thin clouds throughout Friday. The clouds may become a bit thicker late in the afternoon, but overall, there should still be plenty of sunshine.
Winds will blow at up to 10 mph, still from the south. Temperatures will add a few more degrees, with most places in the upper 60s and a few places pushing into the low 70s.
The wind will remain around 10 mph Friday night but will increase substantially for the daytime hours Saturday. Wind speeds will be over 15 mph with top gusts of 35-40 mph. These stronger winds will continue to come in from nearly due south.
Clouds on Saturday should be thicker than on Friday, limiting the sunshine. Still, most places should at least hit 70 degrees for highs.
Pattern Breaks Down
A weather system will move in after midnight Saturday night. Winds will remain strong ahead of this system but will gradually drop and turn southwesterly after midnight. Accompanying the wind shift will be an area of rain.
Some parts of the southeastern Finger Lakes may not see the band of rain arrive until near or after sunrise Sunday. The area of rain should weaken Sunday morning as it moves east of most of the area.
A few afternoon showers may pop up, mainly along and east of an Elmira to Ithaca to Syracuse line.
Rain amounts could exceed a half inch for areas that see most of the rainfall overnight. A wide variation in rainfall amounts is expected, though. The details of this rain will likely need some further adjustments over the next couple of days.
Temperatures will initially be held back a little on Sunday by the showers and clouds. However, sunshine should come out in the afternoon, pushing most areas into the upper 60s. If more sunshine works its way out, temperatures could end up nearly matching Saturday.
Cooler air will start to seep into the region, though. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s with bright, sun-filled skies. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10 mph.
By Tuesday, winds will be northerly, and temperatures will continue to drop. Look for highs in the mid and upper 50s, which are still above average.
Nighttime temperatures will also drop. After staying in the upper 40s or 50s from tonight through Sunday night, morning lows Monday will be in the 35-45 degree range, while Tuesday morning should be in the 30s for all but immediate lakeshore areas.
Winds will be back to the south by Wednesday, leading to gradually warming temperatures. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 50s with 60s likely to end next week. It will remain sunny and dry until late in the week or next weekend.
Unsettled weather will last through next weekend and into the early part of the following week. Cold air will eventually take over with highs most likely sticking to the 40s.
Finger Lakes Beauty
No matter the weather, the Finger Lakes are a region of stunning beauty… but there is something special about an expansive dome of blue stretching from horizon to horizon across the hills, fields, lakes, and golden forests of our region. I hope you get some time to enjoy the sunshine and last grasps of fall color that still dot our lovely home.
In making my 2023 FLX Weather calendar and almanac, it was difficult to choose just a handful of the pictures that were sent to me. But, for the pictures that made it into the calendar… all I can say is wow! Thank you to all of the talented photographers who captured and shared this beauty with all of us by submitting their work to the calendar.
You are sure to enjoy every picture included in the calendar as you track the daily weather with the icon stickers, learn about historic weather events and statistics, and plan your days, weeks, and months. Your family and friends who no longer live in the region will also enjoy a monthly trip down memory lane after receiving this unique and special gift from you.
But you have to hurry. There are just 13 days left in the presale period with the special early-bird pricing. Guarantee you get all the copies you need for yourself and for your gift lists by ordering today!
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.