Record warmth accompanied by gusty winds, rain showers this weekend

finger lakes weather forecast friday november 4 2022 sun clouds warm windy
A fun look at some local November climate history is mixed in with the weather forecast for this weekend and next week with some changes to our pattern on the way. [Photo by Cynthia Smith]

On Weather Records

Warm, windy, and at times, a bit of wet weather is on the way for the Finger Lakes this weekend.

In fact, by November standards, the warm weather will be particularly notable.

Now, like many things with main-stream media weather reporting, I often feel that the cries of “New Record! New Record!” are overdone and often lack context. When considering records, it is important to note the length of the record set and the type of record being set.

Many focus on daily records, but I find focusing on a single 24-hour period lacks the context of the surrounding days and week in determining whether it truly stands out. This is especially true of high-variability events, like precipitation. I could explain further, but for now, let’s go on to how this applies to the weekend weather.

I tend to focus more on monthly records and on sites that have lengthy climate records. Locally, Ithaca, Elmira, Auburn, Syracuse, and Rochester all have record sets of at least 120 years. Geneva, meanwhile, has a much shorter, but still reasonable, record set of 53 years. This sets the context for my rare proclamation of record-setting weather this weekend.

No major records will be challenged today, though temperatures will continue to rise. With plenty of sunshine and steady south winds, highs will be up around 70 degrees for many areas. Some thin clouds will move through from time to time, possibly thickening later in the afternoon.

Clouds and south winds overnight will keep temperatures in the mid and upper 50s. Some of the aforementioned sites may set new daily record warm minimum temperatures, but no monthly records will be challenged yet.

Saturday will be noticeably cloudier than today, but some breaks of sun will still be possible from time to time. A later afternoon isolated shower cannot be ruled out, mainly across the southern half of the region.

High temperatures will push into the low and mid 70s. The more sun, the warmer it will be, but the clouds should be enough to preclude any challenge to monthly record highs, which range from 77 degrees in Geneva to a way-out-of-reach 87 degrees in Elmira.

It will also be windy tomorrow, with south winds up to 20 mph and frequent gusts near or over 35 mph. The wind will persist into the night without losing any steam.

Clouds will also thicken overnight and rain showers will move in from the west after midnight. The rain may not make it to the eastern half of the region until after sunrise.

Here is where monthly records may well fall. Overnight lows in the upper 50s and low 60s are expected. This will be close to the following record warmest daily minimum temperatures for November: Ithaca, 60 degrees (1956) | Elmira, 62 degrees (1931) | Auburn, 59 degrees (1924) | Geneva, 59 degrees (1982) | Syracuse, 63 degrees (1931) | Rochester, 61 degrees (2002).

As you can tell by the variety of years these records have been set in, it is a rare but not unprecedented occurrence to have overnight temperatures around 60 degrees in November.

If you enjoy this type of statistical look at our past weather climate, you will love my new calendar and almanac. Each month displays a host of averages and records for each of the six climate sites mentioned here. There are also historical events displayed directly on the calendar grid to mark their anniversaries and weather icon stickers to create your own weather journal keepsake. Be sure to pre-order your copy today by clicking/tapping here.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday november 4 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Up and Down Weather

The rain showers that move in Saturday night will be along a frontal boundary. This will be slow to move through the area on Sunday, keeping showers in the forecast throughout the day. However, the support for rain will wane after sunrise, so even though showers will be in the area, Sunday should not be a washout.

Temperatures on Sunday should still manage to make it at least to the upper 60s. Winds will decrease but will still be on the breezy side until the front slides through. The wind will turn to the west Sunday night and then gradually to the northwest for Monday.

The shifting winds will cause temperatures to begin a brief cooling trend. Thanks to sun-filled skies and the slow turn of the wind, highs Monday should still make it to the low and mid 60s.

Temperatures will then drop well into the 30s Monday night with clear skies and light winds. The wind will become more northerly on Tuesday, reinforcing the colder air. It will be another sunny day with just a few thin clouds, but highs will probably not reach 55 degrees.

Tuesday night will again be cold and some areas could sneak into the upper 20s with widespread low and mid 30s elsewhere. Highs on Wednesday will inch up into the mid 50s.

By then, winds will be back to the south, keeping nighttime temperatures closer to 40 degrees and pushing late-week highs back toward the 60s.

Next weekend, a weather system should roll through that will bring a more intense and longer-lasting shot of cold air for the following week. Many days will probably end up with highs in the 40s, which is much closer to average than our current weather.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday november 4 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

  1. Tom Ithaca

    During those winter warm spells in February circa 2016-2018 and 2020 where it hit 75 in Syracuse in 2018 and 70 a couple years before there was overnight lows near 60 in the middle of winter during each of those events, but not quite 24-hour lows that high as each following day had a big cooldown before midnight. Sometimes dew points reach 50 in the middle of winter and 70 in May so it’s surprising November hasn’t had nights that warm.