A broad, yet poorly defined area of low pressure extends this morning from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes.
Along the leading edge of this area, some showers are moving through the Finger Lakes early this morning. Much of the region will see a little rain from these, and a couple of the showers may be briefly heavier or could have some snowflakes mixing in.
Behind this initial batch of showers, the rest of the day will have spotty on and off showers and some areas of drizzle. The showers may be sporadic for much of the day before increasing after sunset tonight and through the overnight.
Outside of the showers and drizzle, clouds will be rather thick and gloomy. South-southeast winds will blow with speeds up to 10 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph, especially this morning.
Temperatures will work their way into the mid 40s this afternoon, then hold mostly steady this evening and overnight. It will remain cloudy and showery through the night, with light south winds around 5 mph.
Most of the showers should move out before sunrise on Wednesday, but skies will remain overcast with spits of drizzle throughout the day. Winds will be lightly out of the south in the morning but will turn to the northwest for the afternoon. Wind speeds will be near or under 5 mph.
Wednesday’s high temperatures will mostly be in the upper 40s, but if the wind shift is delayed or if any breaks of sun manage to work through the overcast, low 50s will be possible. Temperatures are likely to drop several degrees in the mid to late afternoon.
A weak response from Lake Ontario is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday. There will not be cold enough air aloft to produce snowflakes, so most of this will be in the form of drizzle. Temperatures should stay above freezing in the mid 30s, but if any localized pockets slip under 32 degrees, freezing drizzle could make things a little slick.
The atmosphere should gradually dry out on Thursday, leading to increasing amounts of sunshine. The sunshine will start on the peripheries of the region and gradually move inward towards the lingering lake effect clouds. Where the lake effect lingers longest, skies may not clear until near or after sunset.
Temperatures will not rise much on Thursday with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. As skies continue to clear Thursday night, temperatures will drop down into the 20s.
Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds, though the cloudy periods may outnumber the sunny ones. These clouds will be from a weather system moving through the Ohio Valley. Precipitation continues to look as though it will stay to our south and southwest on Friday.
That becomes less certain Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as the disorganized, weak low remains in the area, gradually dissipating.
The best chance for some sun may be on Saturday, but a few rain showers could also sneak in. Rain and/or snow showers will also be possible on Sunday and Monday. At this time, these look sporadic and light and many areas will probably remain dry.
Temperatures will continue to be a touch above the climatological averages, with highs around 40 and lows remaining in the 30s.
Active weather will remain a possibility into the middle of next week. A strong storm system is expected to develop over the northern Plains, while a strong high pressure system sits over eastern Canada.
This type of setup could lead to a mixed precipitation event, where snow or ice transitions to rain as warmer air tries to push in but runs into colder air supplied by the high pressure. If something like this happens, it looks like the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe is most likely. Obviously, though, that remains mostly speculation at this point, over a week out.
Have you been putting off ordering a copy of the Finger Lakes Weather 2023 Calendar & Almanac? It is not too late to do so, but I would not advise waiting much longer!
Order fulfillment has begun, but there is still a long way to go in getting pre-orders shipped out. This means orders today may not be sent out for a week or more, so you will want to “get in line” sooner rather than later, especially if you are using the calendars for Christmas gifts (which is a great idea)!
Secondly, the number of available calendars is dwindling. You do not want to miss out by delaying your order.
The calendars printed out beautifully. If you have been on the fence about getting one, you will not regret taking the plunge! Every order also helps further secure the financial standing of Finger Lakes Weather for 2023.
If you’ve already purchased, keep an eye on your email in the coming days for shipping information! With the essential help of my wife, we are working hard to get orders out as quickly as possible!
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.