Here are my latest thoughts on the upcoming winter weather event on Thursday and Friday across the Finger Lakes, as of Wednesday evening.
This remains an extremely complex event. Temperatures will be right on the edge between rain, snow, and ice. There will be competing processes in the atmosphere trying to push the temperature in different directions simultaneously. A degree or two difference is all that is needed to throw precipitation types, and thus snow amounts, off the forecast.
As such, the forecast confidence is low and large variations from location to location is a realistic expectation. The map and graphic below are useful for guidance with the expectation that deviations from them are to be expected.
This is my best stab at giving you useful, actionable information in a sea of uncertainty. HONESTY is one of my core values, and it would fly in the face of that to say that any graphic or forecast you see for this event, from any weather source, is fraught with uncertainty and will almost certainly end up incorrect for some areas.
The bottom line is this: once it starts precipitating Thursday morning, travel will quickly become difficult and will continue to be so to varying degrees well into Friday. This will not be a blockbuster as far as snow amounts go, but it will pile up in some areas as a wet, heavy snow. Icing early in the event will add to the hazardous travel conditions.
All day, I have happily been assisting people with their specific travel-related questions. This is one of the best parts of Finger Lakes Weather — with ACCESSIBILITY as another core value, I strive to answer every question that comes my way with personalized detail that you cannot get anywhere else.
One last note in regard to Friday. There remains less certainty there, simply because it is further away, but my trend has been to go for more snow and less rain, though the heaviest snow will remain well east of the region.
With those things in mind, here is my forecast Snow Map and my Precipitation Type Breakdown graphic: