Warm to Mild to Chilly
A pair of strong storm systems are crossing the nation, taking a track through the Great Plains to north of the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
The first of these systems is over Lake Superior this morning. Large amounts of warm air have surged north out ahead of this system with temperatures rising substantially overnight in the Finger Lakes.
Most areas are starting out between 45-50 degrees this morning with more warming on the way. Strong south and southwest winds will keep the warm air building, and periods of sunshine will aid in the warming.
There are some clouds and even a few stray showers about this morning as the warm front that moved through last night departs. Much of the day will have sun and some scattered clouds with little to no additional rain.
Wind speeds will peak during the early to mid afternoon and will be strongest west of Canandaigua Lake. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings are in effect for western New York and the far western Finger Lakes for gusts over 40 mph and locally over 50 mph. Further east, winds will be gusty, but not overtly strong, with top gusts in the 25-35 mph range.
Many areas will break into the low 60s this afternoon, and a few pockets could get as high as 65 degrees.
A cold front will drop south across the region this evening with an increase in clouds and a few showers. Winds will turn to the west and decrease, and by Thursday morning, temperatures will be into the mid 30s.
Temperatures on Thursday will bounce around in an atypical manner. First, with a dry but cloudy morning, temperatures will rise to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. During the mid and late afternoon, rain will move into the region. This rain will be widespread, but not too heavy, and temperatures will drop to the mid 40s.
During the evening, temperatures will rise again, with many places at or above 50 degrees. Areas of rain with some embedded downpours and many even a rumble of thunder will move through. A final band of showers will accompany a cold front during the predawn hours of Friday morning.
Temperatures will quickly drop behind the front, falling through the 40s and 30s. Some snow showers will be possible Friday morning, but accumulations should be limited to a light coating. By Friday afternoon, temperatures will be into the 20s. Northwest winds will be blustery, but gusts should peak around 30 mph.
A little more mild weather
Skies will become partly to mostly clear Friday night, allowing temperatures to tumble down into the 10s. Winds will be shifting, though, and most of Saturday will be under a southwesterly flow. With a good deal of sunshine, temperatures will rise back into the low 40s.
Sunday will be cloudier but warmer as highs push into the upper 40s. No rain is expected, and at least early on in the day, some sunshine may filter through the overcast.
A cold front will drop southeast through the region on Monday. Rain showers are likely with highs in the mid 40s. Some of that may turn to a little snow late.
Beyond Monday, the models become chaotic as an active storm track sets up across the eastern United States. The tracks and strengths of these individual systems are much too uncertain at this point to have much confidence in the day-to-day weather next week.
However, while there are warm scenarios that could come to pass, overall, the pattern has a colder look to it. If the storm track sets up to our south and east, there will also be opportunities for snow.
The medium-range snow outlook graphic is starting to show this, with a widening range of low-chance possibilities Tuesday and Wednesday. The Thursday-Friday time period next week looks especially worth watching, though, at this point, the chances for a big snow event remain low.
The coldest upcoming air looks focused just after that, coming in next weekend. This is not expected to be a big invasion of arctic air, but temperatures could slip slightly below average for a couple of days. For reference, the average high in Ithaca on Saturday the 25th is 35 degrees and the average low is 17 degrees.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
Kelly Doolittle
Hi Drew – can you talk about the potential of any of the weather effects we are feeling in the northeast this winter being part of the La Niña effect? And any thoughts on the potential of an upcoming potential El Niño? So interesting, but so complex…thank you!