Temperature Transition
The next 48 hours will see a drastic change in temperatures as warm air floods back into the Finger Lakes.
Today will remain on the cooler side of the spectrum, though it will be warmer than yesterday and not too far off the seasonal averages.
How warm it ends up getting today will partially depend on the cloud cover. Thick clouds cover the region this morning and will hang around at least into the early afternoon. After that, however, there should be a gradual increase in sunshine.
How much the overcast breaks up will help determine how many areas push into the 50s this afternoon, and how far. Most areas should end up around or slightly above 50 degrees, but higher elevations are more likely to stick to the upper 40s.
Winds will be from the northwest through the early afternoon with speeds around 10 mph. The wind will weaken during the afternoon and start to turn more southwesterly. The wind may go calm before some eastern areas shift to the southwest early this evening.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight. Temperatures will reach their low point in the mid 30s around and for a few hours after midnight. A small bump up to the upper 30s is expected by dawn Thursday.
Some rain showers will also move in from the northwest in the hours surrounding dawn on Thursday as a warm front develops over the region. These showers should not last long and much of Thursday will have a good deal of sunshine.
Winds will be light and variable with the front overhead. This will also set up a gradient in the temperatures, with highs Thursday afternoon ranging from around 60 degrees along the shore of Lake Ontario and into the Syracuse area, all the way to the mid 70s across the Southern Tier from Elmira westward.
On Friday, the front will lift northward, opening the region up to very warm air. Afternoon highs should be around or above 80 degrees on Friday. There should be plenty of sunshine and dry weather.
In fact, dewpoints Friday afternoon will be in the low 40s, which will result in relative humidity values around 25 percent. Combined with the hot temperatures, sunshine, and southwest winds gusting to 25 mph, this will result in a high brush fire risk.
Weekend Weather
The weather will undergo another major shift this weekend, resetting back to conditions similar to the early part of this week.
Saturday will be on the warm side, however, with morning lows starting well into the 50s. Afternoon highs should easily make it into the mid 70s.
South winds will build through the day, peaking during the afternoon hours with speeds approaching 20 mph and gusts over 40 mph.
Much of the day will be cloudy, though some sunshine may filter through at times during the morning hours. Thicker clouds will move in for the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The timing of the front is still uncertain, but rain could arrive during the later afternoon hours.
If the rain does arrive during the daytime, it could be accompanied by some thunder and lightning and some gusty thunderstorm winds. This will be less likely if the rain moves in after sunset.
Either way, some locally heavy rain is possible and amounts will likely end up being highly variable across the region. On the high end, some areas could see upwards of an inch and a half, while other areas see around or under a half inch.
Cooler air will move in quickly with lows Sunday morning in the lower 40s and highs Sunday afternoon in the low and mid 50s.
Sunday should have some rain showers scattered about, but it will probably be dry much of the day. Winds will be relatively light, coming in from the west and northwest.
Monday will be cool with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees. Morning lows will be in the mid 30s, and nighttime temperatures will fall to the low 30s. Scattered showers will continue to be possible on occasion, but with much of the time remaining dry.
Temperatures will slowly moderate from there, but the end of next week is highly uncertain with the models showing the potential for an active weather pattern. This is resulting in a lot of variation on the models, so it is too difficult to draw any realistic conclusions at this time.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. 
