Late Week Warming
High pressure is directly overhead this morning.
Beneath the high, conditions overnight were ripe for radiational cooling, and most areas slipped down into the 20s this morning.
A combination of sunshine from the high pressure and a light south wind on its backside as it slides eastward will help temperatures rise in a hurry today.
By the afternoon, most places will be thirty-five to forty degrees warmer than their daily minimum, with highs in the mid 60s.
Only a few thin clouds are expected late in the day. Wildfire smoke from Canada will continue to cause an occasional haze as well.
The south wind will increase after sunset, with speeds around 10 mph by midnight and 10-15 mph overnight.
The wind will hold temperatures up, with overnight lows ranging from around or above 50 degrees across the north to the mid 40s in the Southern Tier. Skies will remain mostly clear, though occasional thin clouds will continue to drift through, especially early on.
South winds will increase slightly during the day on Friday and will blow steadily at up to 15 mph. Top gusts on the day should just get over 30 mph.
There will be sun early in the day, but clouds will gradually increase during the afternoon. Even then, some filtered sunshine may still be possible.
The early sun and southerly flow will continue to push temperatures upward with highs ranging through the 70s. Most areas should be in the mid 70s, with warmer temperatures near Rochester and cooler temperatures in the higher terrain.
Some Rain, then More Sun
A frontal boundary will approach from the west Friday night into Saturday while an area of low pressure lifts north along the East Coast.
The interplay of these two systems is leading to lower-than-normal confidence in the timing of the rain on Saturday. While the coastal low will be too far east for a direct impact, it may slow up the arrival of the frontal rain.
If this happens, showers may develop over the western Finger Lakes Friday night, but make little eastward progress Saturday morning. This could lead to some beneficial rain totals over Western New York, mainly west of I-390.
Here in the Finger Lakes, lesser rain amounts will be likely as the front picks up speed Saturday afternoon and sweeps through with some periods of light rain and showers.
If the front is not held up, however, rain showers will move into the Finger Lakes during the morning hours on Saturday and stick around for much of the day.
Either way, Saturday afternoon looks wet, and at the very least, some areas will see showers Saturday morning. Just how much of the region sees rain Saturday morning is uncertain, though I lean towards at least areas east of Cayuga Lake staying mostly dry.
Temperatures will be impacted by the arrival of the rain as well. For any areas that stay dry into the afternoon, temperatures could flirt with 70 degrees. Areas that see rain throughout the day are more likely to be in the low and mid 60s.
South winds will be blustery again on Saturday with speeds similar to Friday. The wind will drop off late and shift to the west-southwest as the front moves through.
Everything will clear out for Sunday with sunny skies mixing with some fair weather clouds. Temperatures will not change much, and will even go up, with highs around 70 degrees.
Cold air will move in Sunday night, resulting in highs struggling to hit 60 degrees on Monday despite sunny skies. Monday night could be cold enough for patchy frost, but just how cold it will get is still unclear. I was aggressive in my forecast for mid 30s in the 7-day forecast, so it may end up a bit warmer.
Dry weather will continue for much of next week and possibly into the weekend as well. Temperatures will slowly but steadily rise, and should be at least near 80 degrees by the weekend.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
