Cold Front Today
A cold front will move across the Finger Lakes today.
Recent model trends have been to delay the front a couple of hours compared to what was expected yesterday. This does lead to a few adjustments in the overall picture.
Already there is a small cluster of storms over Western NY at 7 AM. This cluster should move eastward slowly and gradually expand toward the midday and early afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will result across the Finger Lakes, possibly lingering as long as the mid-afternoon over the southeastern quadrant of the region. Not at all areas will end up seeing rain today, however.
For areas east of Cayuga Lake especially, there will be a small risk for some strong thunderstorm winds and a slightly higher risk for heavy downpours and localized flood concerns. Some of these areas can only handle an inch or so of rainfall in an hour before flooding will be possible, and that threshold could be met this afternoon.
The activity will clear out from west to east during the afternoon, and most areas will end the day dry.
Temperatures will top out in the low 80s during the midday and early afternoon with 70s during and after the rain. Dewpoints will not drop appreciably until the evening, so it will remain muggy throughout the day.
Nighttime temperatures will dip to the low 60s with some thin clouds from time to time. Thin clouds will persist into Saturday, but no additional rain is expected.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the low 80s with comfortable dewpoints ranging through the 50s to near 60. Winds will be light and variable.
Clouds will increase Saturday night and rain will move back into the region before sunrise on Sunday.
A frontal boundary will develop over the area on Sunday, and low pressure will slowly track along this front. The rain that moves in during the predawn hours will stick around for much of Sunday.
It may not rain constantly over the entire region on Sunday, but waves of rain and thunderstorms will be possible. The further east, the greater the chance for continuous rainfall and heavy downpours.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty in how this all plays out, including how much rain could potentially fall in localized areas. As an added layer of complexity, the potential for heavy rain today over some of the same areas will also influence the flooding potential on Sunday.
This will be something to watch closely and I will likely have further blog posts this weekend to address the situation.
The front and low will move eastward on Monday, but there will still be a chance for some stray, lingering showers. These will especially be possible over the eastern half of the region, but many areas will be mostly or completely dry.
Temperatures will stick near 80 degrees on Monday after morning lows in the low 60s.
Tuesday will be dry and warm with temperatures bouncing back into the mid 80s. Wednesday is less certain but may follow suit. The uncertainty comes late in the day, when there is at least the possibility of a few showers or storms, even though the models are backing off of the idea.
The next cold front is now expected to move through on Thursday with showers and storms.
This overall, fairly typical summertime pattern looks as though it will continue through the middle of July at least.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.