End of Week Weather
High pressure is centered right over the Finger Lakes this morning, resulting in one of the coolest mornings yet this season.
Temperatures range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s this morning. For many areas that slipped below 40 degrees, this is the first time in the 30s yet this fall.
There are a few clouds in isolated areas this morning. Any low clouds or fog will quickly burn off, leaving sunshine and a few occasional thin clouds high in the atmosphere. This will remain true for the rest of the day.
Winds will be nearly calm this morning, then will turn northerly for the afternoon with speeds only around 5 mph.
Temperatures will be close to or just above yesterday’s highs, with more areas reaching or getting just above 70 degrees. A few hilltops between Cortland and Syracuse will remain in the mid 60s.
Winds will turn to the southeast tonight, which should raise the floor on the nighttime temperatures. A couple of isolated pockets may still slip into the upper 30s, but for the most part, overnight lows will be in the low and mid 40s.
Friday will be sunny to start and will remain as such for much of the day. However, low pressure along the coast of the Carolinas will start to spread some clouds towards the region late in the afternoon. These clouds will push in from the south and southeast, so those parts of the region will have the highest chance of ending the day with clouds.
Southeast winds will persist through the day, increasing to slightly over 5 mph. Afternoon highs should be one or two degrees higher than today, which should put most areas, except the highest elevations, between 70-75 degrees.
Clouds should increase overnight, keeping temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s.
Complex Weekend Setup
The coastal low will drift northward Saturday and Sunday while a new area of high pressure over Canada attempts to block its progress.
The battle lines between these two competing pressure systems are drawn over our region, meaning our forecast comes down to minor subtleties that remain uncertain, yet will have major implications.
After trending drier, models have begun to reverse course with a more northerly and westerly track of the low. This has increased the chances for rain, particularly over the southeastern half of the region. It will be a sharp cut-off, though, so any slight deviation in the track of the low, or the position or strength of the high, will shift the line between rainy and dry.
Rain showers may enter the southeastern Finger Lakes as early as Saturday afternoon, though rain is more likely late Saturday night through the first half of Sunday.
On the rainiest ends of possibility is a scenario where much of Sunday has rain across much of the region. In this scenario, the southeastern Finger Lakes could see rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches.
Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, particularly if you have outdoor plans on Sunday. The models are highly likely to continue to fluctuate, and I will continue to attempt to cut through that noise in the data to pick out trends and favored scenarios.
Temperatures this weekend will ultimately be decided by the clouds and precipitation but will probably mostly stick to the 60s.
Rain chances should drop off by Monday, but there is an outside chance that the low will stick around through the early week period with additional showers. Right now, though, it looks like the high pressure will kick the low out to sea, setting up another dry period for most of next week.
Temperatures should remain near average next week with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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