Low Rain Chances
An area of low pressure meandering through the Ohio Valley will continue to throw some thin clouds our way today and perhaps some rain early Friday.
Combating this low is high pressure entrenched over eastern Canada. This high has been keeping the low at bay, just as it did with Tropical Storm Ophelia last weekend.
Beneath the high, skies are starting the day mostly clear across the Finger Lakes. Temperatures range mostly through the 40s. It should remain mostly sunny for at least a few hours this morning before the next batch of clouds comes our way.
Many of the clouds that move through today will be thin, allowing a fair bit of sunshine through, like they did much of yesterday. There may be some periods of thicker clouds, particularly later in the afternoon.
Southeast winds will blow between the high and the low with speeds slightly over 5 mph. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, if not a degree or two warmer. This will result in highs mostly in the upper 60s, with highs around or just over 70 degrees from Dansville north to Rochester and then east to Syracuse. Higher elevations will stick to the mid 60s.
Skies will be mostly cloudy tonight as the low passes by to our south and begins a weak redevelopment along the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a whole, these nighttime clouds will be thicker than the daytime clouds. With the moon nearly full, however, there may still be some moonlight sneaking through.
With the clouds, nighttime temperatures will stick to the low and mid 50s.
Towards dawn, a few showers may move into the region from the south and southeast. These will be possible anywhere, but most likely to the east of Cayuga Lake. Scattered showers may persist through Friday morning before pulling off to the east.
Friday should end with some sun as a piece of the high pressure system breaks off and is left behind over the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures on Friday will depend on the shower activity and how quickly clouds depart. As such, the northwestern Finger Lakes will be warmest, with low 70s from Dansville to Rochester. Upper 60s will be common elsewhere, except for Tompkins, Tioga, and Cortland counties, which will see highs in the mid 60s.
Sunny, Warm Stretch
High pressure over the Great Lakes will strengthen on Saturday, then merge with a second high from Canada on Sunday. The new, combined high will then sit overhead for the better part of a week, delivering a sunny, dry, and warm first week of October.
Saturday should be quite sunny, though there is some question whether any clouds from the coastal system will be thrown back into our eastern areas Saturday morning. Right now, that is not expected to happen.
Winds will be northerly between the high to our west and the departing low to our east. However, warm air will ride up and over the high and down into our region, so the north wind will not have any cooling effect.
In fact, Saturday should have widespread temperatures into the 70s with a few of the normally warmer areas pushing towards 75 degrees.
Likewise, clear skies and nearly calm winds Saturday night will be limited in their cooling capacity. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be between 50-55 degrees.
Clear skies are likely on Sunday. The abundance of sunshine and the oddly warming north wind will push temperatures into the mid and upper 70s.
Subsequent days next week should continue to add another degree or two onto the daily highs. Monday there will be a chance for a few places to hit 80 degrees while even higher elevations get near or above 75 degrees.
Temperatures should peak on Wednesday with widespread upper 70s and low 80s.
Throughout the early and middle part of next week, skies will be sunny with fair weather clouds in the afternoon.
A cold front should move through towards the end of next week, ushering in what should be a cooler, more unsettled weather pattern for the second week of October.
Just how cold it may get remains to be seen, though, as there is a very large spread on the models. A few outlier models even holding onto well above average temperatures, while outliers on the other end are hinting at the potential for a few sno-, well… we don’t need to go there, yet.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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