Incoming Cold Front
Thin clouds out ahead of a slow-moving but strong cold front will gradually increase across our area today.
The clouds will vary in their thickness at times today. Much of the morning, at least, should have a fair bit of sunshine filtering through the clouds. Overall, however, the trend will be for the clouds to become more numerous and thicker over the course of the day.
Even as clouds increase, no rain is expected in our region through the daytime or evening hours today. It will not be until dawn Friday approaches that a few showers will start to move in ahead of the front.
South winds will be steady today with speeds around 10 mph. Tonight, the wind will increase slightly while remaining from the south.
It will remain warm today, but not as hot as yesterday. A few mid 80s may still show up, mainly from Dansville to Rochester. Low 80s will extend eastward through the I-90 corridor.
In the valleys of the Southern Tier, as well as locations near the northern end of the lakes, highs will be around 80 degrees. Most other areas will be in the upper 70s with a few mid 70s in higher elevations. If the clouds stay thin enough long enough, temperatures could get a couple of degrees warmer than expected.
While clouds continue to thicken and increase overnight, they will trap the warm air near the surface. Overnight lows will only be in the low and mid 60s, which is about where our average high temperatures are for this time of the year.
As mentioned previously, showers will start to show up in the predawn hours of Friday morning. There will be a gradual but steady increase in shower activity through the morning and into Friday afternoon. These showers are expected throughout the region.
Temperatures on Friday will remain well above average, but quite a bit cooler than the rest of the week. Look for highs mostly in the low 70s with a few warmer pockets in the mid 70s.
Heavier downpours will become more likely Friday evening as the showers transition into a more widespread rain. The band of rain may stall out over the region, continuing into Saturday morning.
There are some questions as to how far east the band will make it before stalling, and there is at least a chance that the heaviest rain may end up to the east. If this happens, most of our rain will come Friday night, and Saturday could even end up sunny in the afternoon.
The timing of the end of the rain will be the primary focus of my forecasting over the next 48 hours, with a secondary focus on how much rain we may see.
New Regime of Cool Air
Cold air will quickly move in behind the cold front on Saturday. After starting with morning lows in the low and mid 50s, afternoon highs will only be in the mid to upper 50s.
Winds will turn to the west and northwest behind the front on Saturday with speeds around or just over 10 mph. Gust should stay near 25 mph.
Saturday night should be quiet, and possibly even clear at times. Temperatures will drop to the low and mid 40s overnight, which is right at the seasonal averages.
A wave of energy and moisture will spin around low pressure located to our north on Sunday. This will lead to a windy, showery day with cold temperatures. Some areas may see highs nearly 35-40 degrees colder than yesterday with highs on Sunday struggling into the upper 40s and low 50s.
Winds will be from the west-southwest with speeds near or over 15 mph. Wind gusts may approach 40 mph at times. Showers will be widespread, but the steadiest rain may fall downwind of Lake Erie due to lake enhancement.
Scattered showers will be possible on Monday and Tuesday, but these days as a whole should be much less rainy than the weekend. Many areas will get through both days with little to no rain.
Both days will have steady southwest winds, but not as strong as on Sunday. Temperatures will remain locked in the upper 40s and low 50s on Monday, with low and mid 50s on Tuesday.
Quiet weather is expected for a day or two toward the middle of next week before the next weather maker moves in late in the week.
Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 50s. If skies become clear one of these nights, widespread 30s and some frost could result, but at this time, there is no specific day that shows this threat.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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