Cold Front
A cold front is working through the Finger Lakes region early this morning.
Along and ahead of the front, numerous flurries and squalls are impacting the area early this morning. Accumulations will generally be light, with many seeing under an inch. However, some roads may be a bit slick, and visibilities will be low at times.
Winds will also kick up from the northwest as the front passes through. Wind speeds will build to 10-15 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph. The wind will help reduce visibility while also importing cooler air into the region.
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 20s in higher elevations to the low 30s in the warmer locations. Wind chills will make it feel like the 10s and 20s, though.
After the main frontal precipitation moves on early this morning, some lake effect snow showers will develop for the late morning and midday hours. These will dissipate during the afternoon, though a few snow showers may linger until after sunset. Locally, up to another inch could fall, especially over higher terrain in the southeastern portions of the region.
Skies will turn mostly clear tonight with just a few lingering lake effect clouds. Evening temperatures will drop to the low and mid 20s with an overnight low in the upper 10s and low 20s.
Winds will start to shift to the southwest after midnight. The wind shift may cause a brief redevelopment of some lake flurries over the far northeastern Finger Lakes, but these should move out before sunrise.
Friday will be quiet with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunshine will especially be prevalent from the late morning into the mid afternoon. Clouds will start to increase late, with skies turning overcast Friday night.
Temperatures on Friday will top out in the low and mid 30s with low and mid 20s Friday night.
Light to Moderate Snow Saturday Night
Late Friday, an area of low pressure will develop over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and track northeastward. I have been monitoring this system since last week, mentioned it in my quick New Year’s Day update, and have been refining my expectations since.
In my post yesterday, I mentioned how the models often jog south and east with a system before bringing it back to the north and west. That overall trend is holding, with higher snow amounts showing on the models in our area compared to the models yesterday.
There is still a fair bit of variation in the models, but we seem to be homing in on a light to moderate snowfall in the 3-6 inch range. Some southern and eastern areas may see more than that, other western and northern areas may see less. Those are the final details that need to be worked out over the next 24 hours or so.
I will most likely post a snow map sometime on Friday and will likely livestream its creation. For more information on my snow map making process, check out a blog post I wrote last month on how my forecasting process is different from most other weather sources.
This snow will start late Saturday afternoon, spreading from southwest to northeast through the region. Most of the snow will fall Saturday night, though lighter snow with minimal accumulation will likely linger well into Sunday.
Travel Saturday evening and Saturday night will be the most difficult with our maximum snow rates and temperatures below freezing. Sloppy conditions will persist into Sunday morning but will largely depend on road treatment plans and traffic loads. As temperatures rise into the mid 30s Sunday afternoon, travel conditions should greatly improve.
Attention will then turn to the next weather system, which will be larger and stronger than the weekend system. This storm should take a much more western track, bringing mostly rain to our area. The biggest threat from this system will likely be strong winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Stay tuned.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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