Another sunny day Wednesday, but rain and mixed precipitation are on the way

Turning Unsettled

High pressure is centered east of Maine this morning and extends down the Eastern Seaboard, easily controlling the weather across the eastern United States.

However, over the next 24 hours, a trio of weak low pressure systems will strengthen and merge over eastern Canada. These pieces of energy are still hundreds of miles apart today, with one north of the Great Lakes, a second over Colorado, and the third far to the north over western Canada.

The first of these lows will scoot eastward today and should bring some occasional thin clouds to our region. These will do little to reduce the sunshine until late in the afternoon. No precipitation will fall today or this evening.

A steady south wind will blow today with speed averaging around 10 mph. Temperatures will range from near 50 in the Genesee Valley and Rochester area, to the low 40s in the higher elevations in and around Cortland County. Most areas will end up in the mid 40s.

Clouds will increase overnight, and some light precipitation may sneak in before sunrise. A large spread in temperatures will remain over the region, with upper 30s near Rochester ranging to the mid 20s over the southeastern Finger Lakes.

This will lead to a variety of precipitation types as the precipitation moves in. Roughly speaking, the northwestern half of the region should see mostly rain showers with temperatures above freezing.

The southeastern half of the region will see light sleet and snow. Untreated surfaces may be a little slick at times Thursday morning, but for the most part, the precipitation should be light enough to reduce the impacts.

The morning precipitation will be spotty, but more widespread precipitation is expected to move in during the afternoon. This will start out as rain with temperatures in the low and mid 40s. After sunset, however, southern and eastern areas may again turn over to a wintry mix of precipitation types.

Again, the precipitation should be light enough to prevent any major travel troubles, but untreated surfaces may become a little slippery.

One final note is to not get caught up in trying to figure out if your location is in the northwest or southeastern halves of the region. If you are in the middle zone where there is uncertainty which zone you are in, expect variable and changing precipitation types based on micro-scale features. Terms like “northwestern” and “southeastern” are meant to give a general description of how the weather will behave, not to serve as a definitive line.

One Cold Day

Some lingering precipitation may still be in the area early Friday. Most of this will be snow or sleet at first but will turn over to rain if it sticks around long enough.

Friday afternoon may then have some sun peeking in and out of the clouds. Temperatures should again make it into the low and mid 40s but will start to fall during the second half of the afternoon.

North and northwest winds will increase Friday night with speeds near or over 10 mph. Cold air will flood into the region, taking temperatures all the way down to the low and mid 10s by Saturday morning.

With the influx of cold air, some lake effect cloud cover and snow showers will develop. These will linger into Saturday morning before the snow at least dissipates.

Northwest winds will persist on Saturday, holding temperatures to the low 20s. But, by evening, winds will start to turn back to the southwest, and the cold air will vanish as quickly as it arrived.

Sunday morning will still be cold with lows in the 10s, but by the afternoon, temperatures should be back into the low 40s. Expect dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds on Sunday.

A few rain or snow showers will be possible Sunday night, but then Monday should turn out mostly sunny. Highs will push into the mid 40s on Monday but won’t stop there.

Temperatures should spike into the 50s for the middle of next week out ahead of a stronger weather system that will lift northeast through the Upper Great Lakes. This should bring us persistent warm weather, some rain, and the potential for gusty winds.

After another very brief cool down behind this system, temperatures should bounce right back and remain mild through the first week of March, if not beyond.

More Information:

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