Monday the warmest day of a mild week

finger lakes weather forecast monday march 4 2024 sun clouds warm rain
Rain showers Tuesday and especially Wednesday will keep temperatures the rest of the week from being as warm as today, but it will still be quite mild. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Early Week Weather Forecast

High pressure centered northeast of New England will keep our weather quiet and warm today.

There will be lots of sunshine throughout the day, along with some occasional spotty cloud cover mixing in. No rain will fall today, though unsettled weather is on the way for the next couple of days.

South winds will blow at speeds up to 10 mph today, helping temperatures shoot upward. Afternoon highs will be well into the 60s today. The Genesee Valley and Rochester areas could flirt with 70 degrees. Even the cooler higher elevations of Cortland County should reach 60 degrees.

The south wind will persist through the night as clouds increase. Overnight lows will stick to the mid 40s as a result.

A small coastal low will work its way north on Tuesday, spreading some rain showers into our area. Locations east of Seneca Lake will have the best shot at seeing occasional showers. To the west of Seneca Lake, breaks of sun may be more likely than rain showers.

Temperatures will be highly variable tomorrow based on the rain and cloud cover. For the Genesee Valley and Rochester area, mid and upper 60s will be possible again. Meanwhile, in the showery east, Cortland County may stick to the low 50s.

The 60 degree line looks like it will set up roughly near Keuka Lake, with areas to the west warmer, and cooler to the east. Topographical influences make this only a rough guideline, though.

What rain falls tomorrow will be on and off. There may be a couple hours of steadier rain during the midday timeframe and the rain should depart by sunset.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast mon mar 4 | mon, sun and clouds mid 60 | tues, rain east, some sun west near 60 | wed, rain mid 50 | thur, increasing sun upper 40 | fri, sun and clouds mid 50 | sat, rain showers upper 40 | sun, am rain and snow showers low 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Other Weather Systems This Week

Tuesday night, a completely separate system will move in from the northwest. Showers will arrive in the Finger Lakes region by Wednesday morning, if not a bit before sunrise for some northern and western areas.

The rain will continue on and off throughout Wednesday as the associated front slows down. The afternoon will probably be a bit rainier than the morning.

On Wednesday, the temperature gradient will be flipped, with the warmest readings being found in the Southern Tier and Central New York. Mid and even upper 50s will be found here. Meanwhile, near Lake Ontario, including Rochester, will see highs in the upper 40s. Most areas south of I-90 should be into the 50s.

Temperatures will take a small hit behind this front, with Thursday starting out in the mid 30s and reaching a high in the upper 40s.

Thursday’s winds will be northerly with speeds up to 10 mph. Sunshine will mix with occasional clouds, but no additional precipitation is expected.

Friday will have a wider range in temperatures between the morning and afternoon. Morning lows will be in the low 30s but afternoon highs will return to the mid 50s. Like Thursday, skies will be a mix of sun and clouds.

Active weather looks likely for the weekend.

Low pressure will approach the region on Saturday, then pass nearby or overhead Saturday night.

Rain will gradually increase on Saturday and will be most likely Saturday night. By Sunday morning, as cooler air works in, some of the rain could turn to some snow.

There is still plenty of time for the path of this system to shift slightly, so the timing of the precipitation, and even precipitation types, very well could shift between now and the weekend. There is at least a small chance of accumulating snow if the low takes a more southern track.

Behind this system, cool air will be in place for Monday with some lake effect snow showers. Temperatures will then rise next week, probably reaching at least 50 degrees at some point.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast mon mar 4 | mon, sun and clouds mid 60 | tues, rain east, some sun west near 60 | wed, rain mid 50 | thur, increasing sun upper 40 | fri, sun and clouds mid 50 | sat, rain showers upper 40 | sun, am rain and snow showers low 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.