Cold Front
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon after another hot and increasingly humid day.
Temperatures will once again rise rapidly this morning on their way to the hottest marks of the week, and of the year so far.
When temperatures peak during the mid to late afternoon, many areas will be in the upper 80s and a few will be at or even above 90 degrees. With dewpoints into the 60s, it will feel muggy, too.
Sunny skies early this morning will start to mix with growing fair weather clouds. However, the chances for thunderstorms will not increase until the late afternoon, after 4 or 5 PM.
There will be plenty of heat and humidity to fuel storms. A weak disturbance out ahead of the main cold front will act as a trigger for showers and storms.
The storms will likely remain in small clusters with just a small chance for a more widespread, solid line. Modest winds aloft will limit the organizing potential of the storms. There will probably be several areas that see little to no rain from these storms.
There will still likely be a few stronger storms, and a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings will probably be issued. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but some small hail will also be possible.
Frequent lightning is also likely, so be sure to follow proper safety protocol if outdoors late this afternoon.
Showers and storms will move east and dissipate by the early evening. Only an additional stray shower is expected overnight as the cold front moves through.
It will be a warm, muggy night with low and mid 60s for overnight lows.
Thursday morning will start with some lingering clouds, but as winds shift to the northwest, dry air will move into the region. Humidity levels will drop, sunshine will increase, and a pleasant day will unfold. Look for highs to be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Mostly clear skies will persist Thursday night and for much of Friday. Just a few small fair weather clouds or some passing thin clouds are expected.
Northwest winds will increase to around 10 mph Friday afternoon, but highs will still top out at around 80 degrees.
Memorial Day Weekend Weather Forecast
As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, there will be several chances for rain.
First, on Saturday, a small low pressure system will track into the region from the southwest.
Saturday morning should be dry, but during the afternoon, scattered showers and storms will become possible.
The strength, path, and timing of this low will all have an influence on how many storms develop and how strong they may become. It does not look like a prime severe weather day, but there are enough pieces to the severe weather puzzle being hinted at that it bears some watching. Stay tuned.
Sunday will likely be the pick day of the holiday weekend as the region resides between systems. The main question for Sunday will be the sun to cloud ratio, which may end up leaning in favor of the clouds. No rain is expected, though.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to reach the upper 70s, starting off a slow downward slide in the temperatures which will persist well into next week.
Monday, Memorial Day, will see a return of showers and thunderstorms. How these play out is too far away to tell, so just be sure to continue checking the forecast if you have outdoor plans. Temperatures will likely stick to the mid 70s.
Additional rain is likely through the middle of next week before there are hints of some drier weather toward the end of the week.
Temperatures will bottom out on Wednesday and Thursday with highs likely sticking to the 60s. Overnight lows should stay in the upper half of the 40s and lower half of the 50s.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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