Mid-Week Weather Transitions
High pressure out over the Atlantic Ocean will bring warmer air into the region today.
Even though surface winds will be at or under 5 mph, the southerly flow on the backside of the high will ensure temperatures and humidity levels go up a notch today.
Most areas will see highs in the mid 80s this afternoon with dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s. Urban areas may see the upper 80s, while higher elevations will see low 80s.
Skies will be a mix of sun and some thin clouds this morning, with fair weather clouds getting added to the mix by midday and through the afternoon.
Like yesterday, there is the smallest of chances for a small, brief spit of rain. Almost all areas will stay dry, and those that do see rain will only see a couple minutes’ worth.
Dewpoints will increase tonight, as will cloud cover, leading to a warm and muggy night. Most areas across the northern Finger Lakes will not drop below 65 degrees, while the southern Finger Lakes and southern Tier stick to the low 60s.
South winds will increase to around 10 mph on Wednesday. A deck of thin clouds may sit over the region but should still allow some sunshine to filter through. High temperatures will be close to, but probably a degree or two under today’s highs.
During the afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop. These will be most likely to the west of Cayuga Lake.
Rain chances will increase and spread eastward during the evening and overnight. Actual rain amounts will depend on thunderstorm development and will likely end up being feast-or-famine.
Winds will turn to the west and northwest behind a morning cold front on Thursday. Rain will accompany the front with some additional scattered showers in the afternoon.
The morning will start warm and muggy with lows in the mid and upper 60s. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s.
Rainy and Cool
This cold front will be associated with a large meandering low pressure system moving into eastern Canada. This low will stall out and remain in place for many days before gradually moving east and dissipating next week.
The result will be an extended period of showery weather and cooler temperatures.
The rain chances from day to day will be driven in part by the daytime heating cycle, with occasional extra support from bundles of energy rotating around the low.
Pinpointing those bundles of energy more than a day or two out is virtually impossible due to their small size and transient nature.
Still, the daytime heating cycle alone should be enough to trigger a daily development of afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. The enhancing bundles of energy may make the rain more widespread at times or increase the chances for rain outside of the afternoon.
As the models look now, Friday and Saturday will have fairly widespread showers, while Sunday looks particularly wet. Monday, on the other hand, looks less rainy as the low weakens. Again, though, these details are highly uncertain and subject to adjustment.
Temperatures will bottom out over the weekend, with warming next week coinciding with the weakening of the low.
Expect highs in the low 70s on Friday, with most areas not escaping the 60s Saturday or Sunday. Highs will be back around 70 degrees on Monday.
With plenty of cloud cover, nighttime temperatures should not be too low with most areas sticking to the 50s.
Even once the low departs early next week, new weather systems may continue to bring showers into the area throughout the week. Temperatures should slowly trend higher with at least a chance for hotter, drier weather the following week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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