Pattern Shift
The dominant weather pattern over our region will undergo a significant shift over the next several days taking us into next week.
For most of today, we will remain in a very nondescript weather pattern. Nondescript meaning there are no nearby pressure systems. The nearest high is far out over the Atlantic, while the nearest low is over central Canada. A cold front does extend eastward from this low, then south through Wisconsin, Illinois, and Missouri.
This set up means there will be little to actually trigger showers and storms until late in the day today.
There will be a gradual increase in thin clouds, which will likely mix with some fair weather clouds during the afternoon. Sunshine will be maximized this morning.
South winds will pick up over previous days with speeds approaching 10 mph. High temperatures will make it into the 80s for most areas, with areas along and north of I-90 at or above 85 degrees.
A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out late this afternoon, especially for areas west of Seneca Lake and especially in the Rochester area. However, it looks like most of the area will probably stay dry until after sunset.
Once the sun goes down, showers and storms from the west will start to move toward the Finger Lakes but will weaken as they do so. Still, occasional showers and maybe a rumble of thunder should be expected tonight, especially after midnight.
With southerly winds, clouds, and showers, it will remain very warm this evening and through the overnight. Lows in the mid and upper 60s will be widespread.
Much of Thursday may also end up primarily dry.
Showers from the overnight will press eastward before dawn. Some scattered showers and a few storms will then develop along the front during the midday and early afternoon hours. These are not expected to organize into a widespread event, however.
Isolated showers and storms will continue until the late afternoon, but at any given time, most of the region will not be seeing rain. A few areas may even get through tonight and tomorrow with little to no rain.
By Thursday afternoon, winds will turn to the northwest behind the front and cooler air will start to build in. Before this, high temperatures will make it into the upper 70s with a few low 80s.
Unsettled and Cool
Thursday night will be mostly dry with some breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will be more comfortable with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
The low pressure system currently over central Canada will stall out over eastern Canada late in the week and only slowly dissipate and move east this weekend.
There will thus be two sources for pop-up showers during the afternoons. First, will be the daytime heating cycle, thanks to the strong June sun interacting with the chilly air aloft. Second will be impulses of energy rotating around the low.
While the daytime heating cycle is a reliable constant, the impulses of energy are highly unreliable and chaotic. Weather models have a hard time resolving them more than a day or so in advance. Therefore, there will continue to be tweaks and adjustments to the forecast in the coming days.
As things look now, there has been an overall decrease in how widespread showers will be in the coming days. Each day through Monday still has rain in the forecast, but to varying degrees.
Friday will have some scattered afternoon showers, but a few areas may get through with little to no rain. Winds will be out of the west and a bit blustery, with highs around 70 degrees.
Saturday is currently looking like the rainiest day, with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms developing. The northern half of the region looks to have higher rain chances than the south. However, all of these details are sketchy at this point.
Winds Saturday will be from the west and southwest with speeds of 10-15 mph. Gusts over 40 mph are possible west of Keuka Lake and especially in the Genesee Valley. Highs will be limited to the mid and upper 60s.
Sunday, which yesterday looked very rainy, now looks like one of the least rainy upcoming days. This is a perfect illustration of the chaotic, uncertain nature of this pattern I described above and in my post yesterday.
Temperatures are likely to remain in the 60s on Sunday with gusty northwest winds.
This pattern should begin to break down on Monday with a few last showers possible. Drier, warmer weather will then take hold and temperatures may get on the hot side by next weekend and into the following week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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