Early Week Weather
High pressure is overhead this morning in the Finger Lakes while Hurricane Beryl has made landfall in Texas.
Today’s weather will be quiet beneath the high with plenty of sunshine, summertime fair weather clouds, and increasing temperatures.
An isolated, brief shower cannot be totally ruled out this afternoon, but remains unlikely.
Temperatures will mainly be in the 85-90 degree range this afternoon. Humidity will still be relatively low, with dewpoints this afternoon in the 50s and low 60s. Winds will be light and variable, if not completely calm at times.
The overnight will be quiet as well, but the first signs of a complicated weather scenario will begin to show up as clouds increase and a light south wind develops. Overnight lows will be in the mid and upper 60s.
Tuesday will also be quiet and dry, though there will be a notable increase in cloud cover compared to today. These clouds will be the result of a disturbance dropping southeast out of Canada and the approaching remains of Beryl, which will be spreading through the Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes.
Like today, though, nothing more than a very low chance for a stray shower is expected in our area on Tuesday.
Temperatures will likely be a couple degrees warmer than today, with fewer mid 80s and more areas around or even above 90 degrees.
Dewpoints may approach the upper 60s for a time during the morning, but some afternoon drying will take place, reducing the humidity somewhat. It will be quick to return by the evening, though.
The first showers may start to show up Tuesday night as a warm front lifts into the area. These will mainly be after midnight. Overnight lows will only be around 70 degrees as dewpoints continue to rise.
Potential Beryl Impacts
One of the keys to Wednesday’s weather will be the position of the warm front, which should stall out somewhere over New York State. The remnant low of Beryl should travel along the front.
To the north and west, widespread heavy rain will fall. Along and southeast of the low, heavy rain will also be possible, but may be more hit or miss as it will be associated with potentially severe thunderstorms.
Overall, these two corridors are relatively narrow, and it is certainly possible that the worst of the weather will remain outside of the Finger Lakes. A low, minor, or no-impact event is certainly possible, if not likely.
However, a moderate to high impact event is also on the table, so it bears mentioning what is *possible* if everything is positioned just right.
If heavy rainfall is the greatest concern, it will be because the atmosphere will be extremely saturated. Some measures of atmospheric moisture (precipitable water, for those interested in more technical details), could be in the 99th percentile for this point in July.
In other words, it will be extremely humid and the atmosphere will be extremely efficient at wringing all that moisture out in the form of torrential rain.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are likely in the core, wherever that sets up. Locally higher amounts are possible. Flash flooding could certainly exist, and our area is currently in a level 2 (of 4) SLIGHT risk for flash flooding, with the possibility of an upgrade to a higher level in future forecasts specifically mentioned by the Weather Prediction Center.
If severe weather becomes a greater concern, flash flooding will still be part of that. However, given that these are the remains of a hurricane, conditions could become favorable for tornadic activity.
Parts of our region are currently under a Level 1- Marginal risk for severe weather. This is the highest level currently shown for Wednesday, but again, the possibility of an upgrade is specifically mentioned by the Storm Prediction Center.
In an absolutely worst-case scenario, moderate to destructive flash flooding, river flooding, and tornadoes could all impact our region. Everything would have to come together perfectly for this scenario to unfold, and therefore it is quite unlikely to be realized.
Loyal readers are well aware that I do not hype the weather, but that my goal is to educate and inform on the different possible scenarios with an eye towards keeping people safe. That is why, when there is at least a reasonable chance that threatening weather is on the horizon, I lay out a carefully worded description of the different scenarios, including the most threatening one.
I will have my next update as usual tomorrow morning. There will still likely be uncertainties at play, but there should be greater confidence in how much of a risk is present to the Finger Lakes region.
Late Week Weather
By Thursday, the atmospheric mess of Wednesday will be breaking down and moving on. Scattered showers are likely in the morning but should gradually dissipate during the day.
Dewpoints should drop back into the 60s as a wedge of dry air moves into the region. Some afternoon sun should also poke out between the clouds.
Temperatures will be cooler than before Beryl, with highs in the low 80s.
Friday should follow suit, with highs in the low 80s and partly cloudy skies.
The weekend will see temperatures creep upward toward the mid 80s. At this time, though, most models keep the area dry.
Our next best chance for rain after Wednesday and early Thursday will probably not come until the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain warm up until that time, though should back off into the upper 70s and low 80s late next week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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