Severe Thunderstorms
A series of atmospheric disturbances will bring a couple of chances for severe thunderstorms over the next two days.
To be clear from the get-go, neither set up looks nearly as volatile as last week’s tornado and severe weather event, but there will still likely be some scattered intense storms to contend with.
A disturbance located over Michigan this morning will track east, arriving in our neighborhood late today. Already this morning, thunderstorms out ahead of this system have developed over Lake Erie and southern Ontario.
This initial band will need to be watched this morning and could arrive in our region during the late morning or early afternoon, if it holds together. Current model data is not helpful with this, as it doesn’t show the activity in the first place.
A second band of action will be possible late this afternoon but may depend partially on the evolution of the first band.
Thunderstorms today are expected to organize into quick moving line segments, possibly spanning north-to-south across the whole region. Damaging winds and frequent lightning will be the main threats from these storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a Level 2—SLIGHT risk, which seems appropriate for scattered severe thunderstorms.
Outside of the storms, sun and clouds will alternate and light south and southwest winds will blow.
Exactly how hot it gets today will also depend on primarily that first band of thunderstorm potential. Expect highs in the upper half of the 80s at a minimum, with widespread highs around 90 degrees as more of a ceiling.
It will be muggy as well, with dewpoints taking a step up from yesterday in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Thunderstorms should move east quickly this evening, leaving a quiet overnight and first part of Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
The thunderstorm threat for tomorrow is a bit less certain with storm development. However, the atmospheric conditions are a bit better for severe weather should storms develop. The mid to late afternoon seems to be the most favorable time for storms.
I’ll surely have more specifics with tomorrow morning’s blog post. One severe weather day at a time, please, Mother Nature!
Tomorrow has less of a chance of hitting 90 degrees, though a few of the typically warmer pockets may still do so. Dewpoints will remain uncomfortably high and may even be a bit higher than today. Winds will still be generally southerly but will pick up a bit compared to today with speeds around 10 mph at times.
Cooler and Quieter Weather
A few showers will be possible on Wednesday, but the main action associated with this weather pattern will shift to the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas.
Cooler air will start to work its way in but will not fully arrive yet. Expect highs Wednesday in the low 80s. Dewpoints will be high early in the day but will retreat during the afternoon.
Dry weather is expected on Thursday with highs backing off into the mid 70s. Dewpoints will fall all the way back into the 50s as a fresh northwest wind blows at around 10 mph.
Thursday night will be cool and comfortable with lows in the mid 50s.
Friday will follow Thursday’s lead with low humidity, plenty of sunshine, and highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Temperatures will creep upward a little for the weekend but will not be hot. Highs Saturday will be in the low 80s after temperatures start the day in the upper 50s. Skies will remain sunny with some fair weather clouds.
There is an uncertain chance for a few spits of rain on Sunday, but many areas will probably stay dry. Highs will be around 80 degrees.
Generally quiet weather will continue into early next week with rain chances increasing during the second half of the week. Temperatures will remain in check with daily highs in the general vicinity of 80 degrees and morning lows somewhere near 60 degrees.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Gail B. Dalmat
Thank you so MUCH. I’m sure our members/subscribers/readers would also like this information. I’ll be sharing via text with my family, and on my fb page.
Gail B. Dalmat
Did the NWS finish surveying those three locations from last Wednesday? Were they tornadoes, microbursts, something else, or nothing? Thanks!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
I wanted to post an update on that over the weekend, but didn’t get to… and now the focus is turning to this week’s weather.
But… the NWS confirmed a small mircoburst in Seneca County with 80 mph winds. That is the only official statement they made. I did read a comment from them on their Facebook page that most of the damage in Moravia was already cleaned up, so there weren’t able to determine anything. There was no mention of Tully, but did say similar about Homer, with an additional estimate of 60-65 mph winds.
I am sure there are reasons, but I am disappointed that the surveys were not conducted until 48 hours later and thus valuable information was lost in the cleanup process. This is a stark contrast to the NWS in Buffalo, which conducted many surveys across a very large geographic area, completing some as quickly as Wednesday evening. The amount of data coming out of Buffalo is substantially larger and more useful than Binghamton this time around.