Tuesday Severe Threat
Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible again today with severe weather likely at least on a localized basis.
Another strong disturbance in the atmosphere will move just north of the Finger Lakes this afternoon, acting as a trigger for thunderstorm development. This disturbance is what remains of an intense thunderstorm complex that struck Iowa and Illinois last night.
Ahead of this disturbance, it will again be hot and humid, providing ample energy for storms. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 80s with a few places breaking 90 degrees.
The disturbance itself will increase wind speeds, with south and southwest winds peaking during the afternoon with non-thunderstorm gusts over 30 mph. This will help storms organize into severe clusters and line segments.
Overall, the setup is similar to yesterday, though no two weather events are ever the same.
One difference will be an earlier arrival time of the disturbance, which should limit the heat and humidity slightly compared to yesterday. The quicker arrival time will also mean a shorter window for storms to develop and intensify.
Occasional morning clouds running out ahead of this feature may also slightly limit how much fuel is available for storms.
On the flip side, while yesterday had both giant hail (3 inch hail near Victor in Ontario County) and potential tornadic activity (Ontario and Cortland counties), the overall threat for hail and tornadoes is slightly higher today than yesterday. Damaging winds will again be the primary threat. Some localized flash flooding could occur again as well.
The biggest question I have this morning is how widespread the storms become due to the earlier arrival time.
As this feature passes just north of the region, likely over Lake Ontario, there will be more forcing for storm development over the northern half of the region. Therefore, I am more confident in severe thunderstorms over northern areas and less confident over the southern half of the region.
There is no firm dividing line between the northern and southern FLX, and the whole region may experience at least scattered storms. But the further north you are, the higher the likelihood.
The timing of the storms today will most likely be between Noon-4 PM. Once the storms move east, the severe threat will end. This should be a one-and-done type event.
Cooler, Quieter Weather
Temperatures will start to decline behind this system, though it will remain warm and muggy overnight.
Wednesday will see highs mainly in the low 80s. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely, especially across the Southern Tier and into Central New York. Severe weather is generally not expected though, instead focusing on the Mid-Atlantic and New England.
A stretch of dry weather should take hold, though a few stray spits of rain may still try to pop up here and there.
Thursday is one day when there could be a spit of rain in otherwise partly cloudy skies. Highs will only be in the mid 70s.
Friday should remain totally dry with highs in the upper 70s. Morning lows will start off in the mid 50s.
Saturday likewise looks dry, but a stray shower cannot be ruled out on Sunday. Temperatures will inch up into the low 80s.
A few showers will be possible on Monday, but generally dry weather should continue early in the week. Rain chances will increase toward the end of next week, with temperatures generally remaining not far from 80 degrees.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Got Weather Pics?
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