Staying chilly with occasional lake effect showers

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday october 15 2024 a road in the middle of the image goes up a distant hill, flanked by colorful autumn trees in the mid-ground and green and gold fields in the foreground. The sky is filled with white and dark grey clouds except for a small patch of blue sky on the left of the image.
Spits and showers will be possible today, especially during the morning and evening hours, with temperatures remaining in the 40s. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Cool Weather

Low pressure centered north of Maine will continue to pull cool air across the Finger Lakes on a northwesterly flow.

With the bulk of the atmospheric energy associated with the low now well off to our northeast, precipitation chances today and tomorrow will mainly be driven by lake effect processes and pockets of enhanced atmospheric energy from small disturbances rotating around the low.

Scattered showers are ongoing early Tuesday morning. Individual shower cells are small and quick moving, but the overall coverage of the showers is increasing.

On and off showers are likely through the morning but should diminish and even mostly end this afternoon. There should even be some glimpses of sunshine this afternoon.

Steady northwest winds will blow with speeds around 10 mph and gusts to 25 mph. While the areas along and north of I-90, and the broad valleys from Corning to Binghamton, will see upper 40s to even near 50 degrees, most of the region will be closer to or below 45 degrees.

Rain chances will increase again this evening as conditions become more favorable for lake effect and a small disturbance adds some extra support for showers.

Showers will continue overnight, perhaps mixing with a little snow over higher elevations. Overnight lows will range throughout the 30s.

Lingering showers Wednesday morning should gradually taper off. There is some question as to how the afternoon will turn out, but as of now, there is at least a decent chance it turns dry. Sunshine will likely remain hard to come by, though.

High temperatures on Wednesday will just about match today with similar wind speeds as well.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue oct 15 | tues, mostly cloudy sct showers mid 40 | wed, am showers m cloudy mid 40 | thur, mostly sunny mid 50 | fri, mostly sunny low 60 | sat, mostly sunny mid 60 | sun, mostly sunny mid 60 | mon, mostly sunny upper 60
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Pattern Flip

Skies may clear Wednesday night, leading to slightly colder nighttime temperatures. More areas will get down into the low and mid 30s, and fewer will stay closer to 40 degrees.

Sunshine is expected to dominate the skies on Thursday. A light northwest wind will still blow, but highs should manage to reach the mid 50s for many areas, anyway.

Winds will turn toward the southwest Thursday night but will be very weak. Still, it may be enough to add a couple of degrees onto the overnight lows.

Friday will again be sunny with temperatures continuing to climb. Most areas should make it into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday will continue the pattern with ample sunshine and highs into the mid 60s. By Sunday morning, low temperatures should mostly be around 40 degrees.

The sun will continue to shine and temperatures will continue to climb early next week. Highs Monday should be in the upper 60s. Temperatures will crest on Tuesday around 70 degrees.

A cold front should move through sometime late Wednesday or Thursday, knocking temperatures down. However, this may only be a brief setback, with at least a chance for mild weather quickly building back in.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.