First Snow Event
An area of low pressure to our west pushed a cold front through the region last night.
Now, a new area of low pressure is developing off the coast of New Jersey. This low will strengthen and move northwest, eventually coming inland and moving in our direction.
In anticipation of this event, the National Weather Service has issued a variety of winter weather alerts for the southern portions of the region.
Precipitation Timing & Type
As this low evolves, precipitation will build back into the Finger Lakes from east to west during the midday and especially afternoon hours.
Rain will start to turn to snow from higher elevations to lower elevations during the latter half of the afternoon and into the evening. Precipitation will increase in intensity during the overnight.
As a whole, the precipitation will start to break up by sunrise Friday, but there may still be some heavier bursts passing through at times into the mid or even late morning.
Dry air will take over by the late morning and midday hours, ending much of the precipitation with just sporadic showers and flurries lingering through Friday afternoon and evening.
Snow Amounts
Areas along and north of Route 20 in the northern Finger Lakes should primarily stay all rain for this event. The forecast is much more complicated for the southern 2/3rds of the region.
The highest precipitation amounts will be roughly from Cayuga, Tompkins, and Tioga counties eastward. Therefore, the highest snow totals will likely come in the hilly terrain of these areas.
Southeastern Cayuga, northern Cortland, eastern Cortland, southwestern Cortland, southern Tompkins, and northern Tioga counties all have areas with elevations over 1500 feet. It is these hilltops that have the best shot for seeing anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of wet, sticky snow overnight.
If the storm system moves far enough inland, the higher elevations in western Tompkins, eastern Schuyler, and northern Chemung counties could get in on some of these snow totals, too.
For similar elevations further west, and for elevations in the 1000-1500 foot range in the aforementioned eastern areas, snow totals will likely be in the 1-4 inch range. That range is broad both in terms of elevation and amounts because I expect a lot of local variation from one place to the next.
Elevations under 1000 feet will likely see snow in the air, but accumulations will be limited to a slushy coating or perhaps an inch. This is least certain across Tioga County, where the snowfall rates may become intense enough to overcome the melting somewhat, so localized higher amounts, even in the valleys, are possible.
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Road Conditions
In the areas that see snow accumulation, I still expect most major and even most secondary roads to remain in fair to good shape.
Temperatures will be close to if not above freezing, making road treatment and even traffic highly effective at keeping the snow off the roads.
Less traveled rural roads going through higher elevations are more likely to see a slushy coating, so plan your Friday morning commute appropriately.
After sunrise Friday, all roads should become mainly wet as temperatures rise.
As a whole, therefore, the impact on travel should be low from this event.
Weekend, Thanksgiving Week Forecasts
Scattered showers and non-accumulating flurries will continue Friday night and into Saturday morning. Occasional showers will linger into Saturday afternoon.
Precipitation will continue to taper off from there, eventually becoming focused on a band of lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday Night and early Sunday. Most of this precipitation will be falling as rain.
This band should depart region and dissipate Sunday morning, leaving most of the day dry.
Temperatures will see highs mainly in the low and mid 40s Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Our next weather system will swing through late Monday into Tuesday. Rain showers are expected, but significant precipitation is unlikely.
Temperatures will remain well into the 40s as this system moves through, but cold air will build in behind. High temperatures for the rest of the week look to be mainly in the 30s.
There may be a few lake effect snow showers on Wednesday. The weather for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and the weekend is too uncertain at this point with the potential for a large-scale weather system. Be wary of Thanksgiving hype with this event… I’ve already started to see it on social media.
Cold air will become locked into the region with highs remaining in the 30s to start December.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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